Orange Evening Interpretation 7.3 The funds that are about to surge in the market are already a bit overwhelmed. Once the tariff crisis is resolved, the market will experience a temporary release of pressure, and this surge level may reach ATH. I can see that, as long as Trump, Musk, Israel and Iran don't make trouble, Big Cake will go up along the established route. Yesterday afternoon, Ma boasted about Xiachuanzi, and the relationship eased slightly. The market reacted instantly. During the opening of the US stock market, Big Cake once hit the market for 11 weeks, which means that the funds in the market are a little under pressure now. When the tariff crisis is lifted, there will be a wave of periodic pressure release from the market, which is likely to reach ATH. Of course, the signing of the US Vietnam trade agreement announced by Trump officials last night was also a small benefit. Why is it small? Since Trump launched the equivalent tariff on April 2, Vietnam was the first to negotiate, and immediately agreed to the terms of a comprehensive zero tariff to the United States. Trump was unwilling to ask Vietnam to give more benefits, so this time Vietnam's concession is to buy a Boeing aircraft worth $8 billion, add 10% to the 10% base tariff of the United States, that is, pay a total of 20% tariffs, and pay 40% tariffs on transshipment goods. This has met the market's expectations, so it is a good thing; However, negotiations in other countries still haven't made much progress. In particular, Trump has begun to threaten Japan by refusing the 25% auto tariff, saying that it will increase taxes and impose severe punishment. Now the world is paying attention to whether Trump really takes a taco. If the United States and Japan don't give in to each other to start a tariff war, it is estimated that the market will take a wave of correction. However, I don't expect the probability to be high, and the two sides may finally make a small step to sign the agreement. Then the Great Beauty Bill, which is Trump's most concerned thing at present, is very anxious. Almost every day, he urges all kinds of members to vote for it, but now he does encounter difficulties. In May, the House vote was passed by Lai Lai Baba. A few days ago, the Senate will also pass it after it has been revised to a completely different face. Now it is back in the House of Representatives. Many members have turned against the current version. Even the Republicans have 5 people against it, and 8 people have not yet voted. The reason for urging votes here in Chuanzi is even because every Democratic member hates this bill, so this bill is very good, which is beneficial to the United States. In short, the Great Beauty Act is not so easy to pass. If Musk uses his money again to snipe at the bill, it is estimated that the market will fall again. Now there is another good news that Peter Till, a Silicon Valley tycoon, has personally advised Musk not to worry about the deficit problem. He believes that AI will increase GDP and income by 3x in the future, which will solve the problem of continuous issuance of US debt. It may be because he thought things through yesterday afternoon that Scott praised Trump in turn. Of course, if Trump really awesome to push this bill hard this week, then the market rate will probably be the same. Standard Chartered Bank's toxic milk has arrived again. The latest outlook report for the second half of 2025 predicts that the pancake will reach 13.5w by the end of September and 200000 by the end of the year. The reason is the inflow of ETF funds, the allocation of corporate treasury, and favorable policies, which support the pancake to reach new highs this year. Personally, I agree with Standard Chartered's prediction. Now, the allocation of pancake has become a common phenomenon, similar to the allocation of gold by sovereign funds. Moreover, the purchasing speed of listed companies far exceeds that of ETFs. According to data statistics, the buying volume of listed companies during the same period is ETF The doubling of holdings is still a situation that many official website companies have not entered, and the proportion will become even more disparate later on. In addition, three states in the United States have basically passed reserve laws, which is also a new entry point for funds. Next are the Federal Reserve Program funded by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce, as well as the expectation of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. Therefore, the probability of reaching a new high in the big pie is infinite, and the suspense now is where the ceiling is. Xiaohei Arthur began to speak explosively again. He said that the passage of the Great Beauty Act would cause a temporary halt in the supply of US dollar liquidity, and the market would sideways until August. The reason is that the Great Beauty Act would increase government spending, and this money comes from the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance. Although the printing press will gradually ease the market later, the instantaneous outflow of liquidity will still cause a negative impact. Even if TGA supplementation is proven to be detrimental to US dollar liquidity, the large pie may fall to the range of 9w-9w5. If supplementation is proven to be meaningless, the large pie will be dominated near 10w and will not break through the high point of 11.2w. Another key point is the Jackson Hole annual meeting in August. If Powell announces the end of quantitative tightening or other policies that benefit liquidity, the crisis will be resolved. Although Xiaohei's predictions jump horizontally, the probability of historical predictions falling is still quite high, and the winning rate of predictions rising is relatively low. Therefore, I think this is still a reference. However, Xiaohei is not very realistic. He has the ability to follow his own short essay and open orders on the chain like James. If he can achieve the integration of knowledge and action and make accurate predictions, this is the most impressive.