The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|Jul 01, 2025 17:14
The Fed is bracing for stagflation: The number of FOMC members who see upside risks to both their inflation and unemployment forecasts reached 14 in May. Furthermore, 18 and 17 members saw upside risks to inflation and unemployment, respectively, in March. On the other hand, no FOMC members projected downside risks to the unemployment rate and inflation in May. This pattern was also seen in March 2025, December 2024, and September 2024. The Fed continues to signal concern over a stagflationary outlook for the US economy. This is why Powell hasn't resumed rate cuts.
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