
飞凡|Jun 30, 2025 03:48
Detailed interpretation of Trump's Big and Beautiful Act
First, let me briefly explain what the bill specifically includes
1. Taxation
Make the previous round of individual and corporate tax reductions permanent, and add a clause for "tax-free tips and overtime pay"
Raise the state/local tax (SALT) deduction limit from $10000 to $40000
Abolish the surtax known as the 'revenge tax' by Wall Street
Restore 30% interest deduction on enterprise EBITDA
Suspend the "double tax rebate" loophole for mid to low-end tobacco products within five years.
2. Expenditure
An additional $150 billion will be allocated for national defense
Border security costs 70 billion US dollars at once, plus an annual increase in repatriation quotas
Sell 1.2 million acres of federal land to raise funds
Medical sector tightens Medicaid/SNAP eligibility, but adds $25 billion in special support for rural hospitals
3. Energy and Climate
Systematically revoke renewable energy tax credits from the previous government and accelerate fossil fuel production permits
The Joint Taxation Committee of Congress estimates that there will be a reduction of approximately $4.5 trillion in revenue over the next decade, while conservative think tanks estimate a net increase in debt of $3.8 trillion to $4.0 trillion.
The White House claims that through growth and land revenue, it can reverse the deficit by $1.4 trillion during the same period.
How are the reactions from various sectors?
The White House and Republican leadership will undoubtedly push for its passage with all their might, explaining it as the largest combination of tax cuts and reindustrialization in history,
Tax breaks help businesses and families withstand pressure, defense and border spending are signs of restoring America's tough stance, and rural healthcare and SALT deductions are pleasing specific ticket holders,
But fundamentally, it is still demonstrating Trump's return to power and building momentum for the 2026 midterm elections.
There are not many opinions within the party, and the opposition's position is mainly that the bill violates the principles of small government and low spending, and is unwilling to take the blame for the worsening of the fiscal deficit.
In addition, Wall Street's attitude has shifted from vigilance to support, which is related to the Treasury Department's abandonment of the "revenge tax". Initially, President Trump planned to impose heavy taxes on stock repurchases, but mostly considered the urgent need for financial asset expansion and stock market prosperity in the current US society, so he turned to raising the SALT deduction limit to $40000 (or increasing it year by year).
Due to their own work, many executives/traders/high net worth clients on Wall Street are in NY/NJ, and the increase in SALT deduction limits is something that high-income states (such as NY/NJ/CA) clients would like to see,
A higher deduction limit=a reduction in individual federal tax burden, equivalent to an increase in investable funds in the hands of practitioners (from $10000 to $40000).
The main opponents are technology innovators, Democrats, and progressive groups. Among them, Musk believes that the Big and Beautiful Act is a "negation of the future" that suppresses emerging industries such as electric vehicles and solar energy. Of course, this is mainly because the bill will cause technology companies such as Tesla to lose tax incentives or be marginalized.
On the other hand, the reasons for opposition from the Democratic Party are more direct. The Big and American bill is clearly aimed at reducing taxes for the rich and targeting the poor, reducing eligibility for federal medical subsidies and SNAP food stamps, and abolishing green energy tax incentives, which have had a negative impact on social security.
The impact of the bill on the short-term macroeconomic situation mainly includes several aspects
Firstly, personal disposable income in the United States is expected to increase around 2026, and corporate after tax profits are also expected to slightly rebound.
After the implementation of the Daye America Act, the US government will use a more radical way to increase borrowing in the next few years. The tax reduction+spending increase in the act will cost the US government about 3~4 trillion dollars more in the next ten years. Since the government has no ready money, it needs to issue bonds to finance, that is, to issue new US treasury bond.
If the average maturity of U.S. bonds remains 70 months, the market needs to digest nearly $20 billion of newly issued treasury bond every day. If demand does not increase synchronously, then it can only increase long-term interest rates to attract buyers. Stable interest rates are the biggest enemy of all risky assets, which will bring continuous pressure to the stock market and the crypto market in the medium and long term.
The biggest problem for the American people is the simultaneous increase of interest rates on housing loans, car loans and credit cards, which is a bit of a disguised sense of interest rate increase.
Of course, OBBB is not so easy to implement, and it is more likely that the plan will continue to slim down and cut off some redundant clauses. OBBB is also not so easy to fail, after all, without OBBB, the only way left is temporary funding.
For traditional investors, the main hedge against OBBB is energy and military stocks, not Bitcoin. Pure coin players will have to deal with the continuous inflationary pressure and policy torment in the future.
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