TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Jun 27, 2025 10:38
Although the recent market has been mainly driven by geopolitical and bill based political economy, making overly embellished macroeconomic data less important, the combined effect of the final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the first quarter of the United States last night, which was -0.5%, much lower than the expected -0.2%, and the final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the first quarter of the United States, which was 3.5% but slightly higher than the expected 3.4%, has made the market slightly recall the story of recession expectations. So tonight's PCE data still needs attention. After all, the level of data will also provide ammunition support for Master Bao to continue playing Tai Chi with Trump. At present, the core PCE price index in the United States for May is expected to have a pre annual value of 2.5% and an expected value of 2.6%. Looking back at the PCE data on May 30th and the CPI data on June 11th, everyone should remember that the overall caliber is that tariffs have little impact on inflation. So if we follow this line of thought, tonight's data should not be too outrageous. It is highly likely that we will still provide an expected annual rate of 2.6% and a monthly rate of 0.1%.
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