
雷神Value|Jun 26, 2025 07:49
Trump's "advance planning" of the Federal Reserve's presidential candidate has had a significant impact.
Since taking office, Trump has publicly criticized current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell countless times. Powell has never ignored him, saying that he exercises his rights independently and does not need to be commanded by the president.
However, Lao Te has recently started to increase his recruitment, announcing the next chairman candidate in the summer or autumn, several months earlier than the traditional process.
Some people say that this can have any impact, and once chosen, they can only take office in another year. If you think so, then simplify this matter.
Trump's urgent and aggressive move to advance the deadline by one year is essentially forcing the palace to do so. Powell is currently sitting in this position, but Trump can't wait any longer and thinks he's blocking the path of interest rate cuts. Do you think if the new chairman is chosen now, how will Powell continue to work? Will the market still listen to him?
Wall Street has always used Powell as the "anchor", and one of the very important tasks of the Federal Reserve is to do expectation management. Now that there is a 'divine needle' that will rise to power in the future, the effectiveness of this' divine needle 'may be greatly reduced. Lao Te's desperate move is really high, and it's really ruthless.
And this indicates that the independence of the Federal Reserve will also be affected. Lao Te set this precedent, and other presidents can learn from it. In the future, how can the Federal Reserve chairman who is not in conflict with the president work? Every time the president comes up, a candidate is brought up in advance to replace the president's mouthpiece and influence the market. The authority of the Federal Reserve is questionable.
This is the real thunder. Two months ago, when Trump publicly questioned Powell, the market had similar concerns, with both the US dollar, US bonds, and US stocks falling. Now that we have shifted from empty talk to actual action, the credibility of the US dollar may be shaken.
However, this may not necessarily be a bad thing for cryptocurrency assets in the long run. The higher the policy uncertainty, the more attractive it may be as a safe haven alternative. Regardless of who Lao Te chooses as a candidate, due to debt anxiety, the direction must be to cut interest rates, and it may not be a small rate cut, but a significant rate cut. Because the cost of borrowing money from the government is too high. Compared to relying on DOGE to offend people everywhere and save a little bit of money, cutting interest rates by 2 percentage points can save hundreds of billions of dollars in interest, and still save so much every year. Lao Te still has over three years left, how much can he save? Everyone who sees it feels tempting, the benefits behind it are too great.
Now Trump has made it clear that he wants to tame the Federal Reserve, and this power struggle will amplify market volatility. The market has already begun to reflect on this situation. Deutsche Bank stated that through statistical model analysis, it has discovered the phenomenon of "new chairman premium", and the market is pricing the exceptionally loose policy during the term of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, especially in the third quarter of 2026, when the new chairman takes office. Coincidentally, JPMorgan Chase also made a similar prediction, predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates seven times next year, directly lowering interest rates to the level of 2.5% to 2.75%.
There's no need to say much, if Lao Te really does this, the market's expectations may be affected soon, and things will change soon. It has to be said that Lao Te's power is still too great, and the entire capital market has to watch what he says and does every day.
Under Lao Te's efforts, it is highly likely that the tradition of encrypting every four years will be broken.
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink