To summarize Powell's speech last night: 1、 Powell has no intention of cutting interest rates in July, so the market generally believes that interest rate cuts will only begin in September. The probability of a rate cut in July is only 23%, while the probability of a rate cut in September is as high as 70%. So a rate cut in September means that the market will start to react around August! And historical data tells us that the last time the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates was on December 18, 2024, but the start of this round of interest rate cuts is on May 18, 2023. Therefore, the best time to layout is in July and August, because the prices in July and August will be much lower than those in September. 2、 Powell's speech focused on the increase in inflation expectations, although the core PCE is still 2.6% and the overall trend is 2.3%, which is generally downward but far above the target! 3、 The labor market is relatively stable, the unemployment rate is relatively low, and employment is relatively abundant. This is the confidence that the United States has in speaking out! 4、 Powell said he is not influenced by anyone like Trump! It is said that one can withstand pressure, but in fact, they can only withstand short-term pressure. Long term pressure is definitely unbearable, so a rate cut in September is inevitable! BTC