Binance's Capital Chess Game: From Exchange Giant to Global Financial Player Under Trump's leadership, the era of cryptocurrency compliance has ushered in an unprecedented "Age of Discovery". In addition to the beloved stablecoin, I believe that CEX, which was once the core of the cryptocurrency industry, are also gearing up. Last time I wrote about how @ star_okx painstakingly bet on going public for IPO, this time I will talk about Binance. Although there is relatively less information on the layout of the capital market, there are still some clues to follow through analyzing the actions of Binance and CZ. Some of them are my personal speculations, which may not be accurate. I apologize for any mistakes and hope @ cz-binance can forgive me. In addition to aggressively expanding through Alpha in the traditional cryptocurrency industry, Binance is also quietly advancing a more ambitious layout in the capital market Upgrade BNB from an "exchange platform coin" to a global financial asset, and use this to build a cross chain, cross-border, and cross market capital map. This is not only a game of coin prices, but also Binance's bet on the "new global financial order". This article will systematically analyze the layout path of Binance in the capital market, from national strategic reserves, BNB micro strategy diffusion, to ETF exploration, gradually outlining its greater ambitions for IPO. ⸻ 1、 National level cooperation: a tentative attempt of BNB as a sovereign asset In the past few years, the cooperation between Binance and some countries has gradually shown the characteristics of "quasi sovereign cooperation". Among them, interactions between @ cz-binance and countries such as Bhutan, Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan can be found. All of these will happen in 2025, indicating that this is part of CZ's new strategic direction. Gelephu Mindfulness City (New Special Administrative Region) in Bhutan announced plans to include Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), and BNB in its strategic reserves, aiming to enhance economic resilience and expand participation in Bitcoin mining. Essentially, this is Binance's attempt to embed BNB into the sovereign financial system, laying the foundation for its future cross-border identity and legitimacy. At present, it has become popular for small countries to include BTC as digital gold in their national reserves, and if BNB can break through the threshold of "national use", its asset narrative will be completely reconstructed. ⸻ 2、 Micro strategy diffusion: the leverage engine of BNB's financialization narrative In the past few days, CZ has stated that several companies are preparing to build "micro strategies" around BNB and plan to go public on the US stock market, including: Former Coral Capital Holdings executive led $100 million BNB fund (now known as Build&Build Corporation) The hot topic that ignited the market yesterday, NA Nabit, publicly announced that it will purchase 5% -10% of BNB's circulation in the future. These types of companies are imitating the MicroStrategy model of the US stock market, obtaining valuation premiums and financing capabilities through "listed shell+encrypted assets". Of course, these plans are not entirely credible - some companies seem to be using micro strategies and BNB narratives for market harvesting and topic marketing. But it cannot be denied that BNB has begun to possess the financial attributes of being packaged, issued, and speculated by mainstream capital markets. This means that BNB is moving from "on chain functional assets" to "off chain investment tools". ⸻ 3、 BNB ETF in Progress: Dual Exploration of Compliance Turnaround On April 2, 2025, asset management company VanEck registered the VanEck BNB ETF in Delaware, becoming the first ETF application for BNB in the United States. On May 2, 2025, VanEck officially submitted S-1 registration documents to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), clearly proposing to issue the VanEck BNB ETF, aiming to track BNB spot prices and become the first ETF in the United States to directly hold BNB. The timing of the application is related to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck's meeting with @ cz-binance at the Dubai Token2049 conference in April 2025, where CZ stated that the success of the Bitcoin ETF will "spill over" to other cryptocurrency assets and may be a catalyst for VanEck to accelerate its application. Once this action is successful, it not only means the compliance channel is opened up, but also means that passive funds (such as pension funds and asset management funds) can legally allocate BNB, which may drive up demand and prices. However, since the beginning of 2025, the SEC has received over 70 applications for alternative currency ETFs (including Solana, Dogecoin, etc.), so the final decision may take several months or even years. ⸻ 4 http://Binance.us Doubts about the listing Is Binance listed or not? After OKX was exposed to be going public on the US stock market this year, this is the most concerning topic for many people. After collecting the current online information, it can be felt that CZ's thinking has changed. In July 2020, CZ made it clear that Binance had no plans to go public, but rather to become more decentralized. But in 2021, CZ stated http://Binance.us We are moving towards IPO and plan to complete the listing within three years. In 2022, the market also reported http://Binance.us We are seeking financing at a valuation of 4.5 billion US dollars. Although these plans were stalled in regulatory conflicts, the SEC officially revoked them in May 2025 http://Binance.us The lawsuit once again opens up a window of possibility for listing. In the context of OKX's clear push for US listing, if its listing is successful, it would be like an icebreaker. So if Binance chooses to reactivate http://Binance.us The listing plan is highly likely to reshape the pattern of US exchanges, especially in the political environment of Trump's presidency, which may be the most relaxed external environment, after all, its USD1 is hand in hand with Binance. ⸻ 5、 What is the relationship between listing and our cryptocurrency players? The relationship is significant, and it has already been demonstrated. If Binance wants to further embrace the capital market, it must address the issue of whether BNB is a security. In my previous article on OKX, I mentioned that Star uses a method similar to self destructing martial arts to cold treat OKB to ensure that it can pass the Howey Test (Securities Certification Standard). From the changes in the past year, we can roughly see some policy shifts in Binance: • Launchpad: The "BNB New Release" function, which was once the most securities related feature, has been completely abandoned; • Launchpool: The reward frequency has significantly decreased, gradually replacing the "Pool's coin holding and airdrop" mode with "Holder retrospective airdrop"; Compared to OKB being directly "relegated to the cold palace", Binance has taken a more gentle and implicit adjustment path. The reason behind this is that BNB has a large volume, multiple holders, and numerous ecological stakeholders, and any radical adjustment will shake the fundamental foundation of Binance. So Binance chooses a "gentle and gradual" approach to gradually weaken BNB's securities attributes without causing panic, paving the way for its compliance and long-term legitimacy. Of course, I don't think BNB will be abandoned, otherwise I wouldn't have seen CZ vigorously promoting BNB everywhere. It should just be looking for a more reasonable balance. I still remain optimistic about BNB going into the four digit range. ⸻ Conclusion: BNB is restructuring its financial identity from platform coins to national level assets We can see that Binance's strategy in the capital market is no longer just about "charging fees" or "squeezing other companies' plates", but attempting to build a three-dimensional system with BNB as the core anchor point, linking on chain ecology and off chain capital, and connecting national resources and financial markets. This layout is still ongoing, and whether BNB's financial asset transformation can be truly realized in the future will depend on: Whether the ETF has been approved; • http://Binance.us Whether to truly restart IPO; Doubts about whether BNB has completely detached from its "securities attributes"; Has the market given consensus pricing to its' non Bitcoin long-term assets'. But regardless of the outcome, the capital game of Binance has quietly come to an end and its momentum is gradually strengthening. Opportunities that can be followed: 1. Subsequent BNB micro strategy stock secondary opportunities 2. BNB ETF benefits BNB prices through positive feedback