What are the possible considerations behind Trump's decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities and its impact on the market? On the 15th, it was discussed that the attitude of the Americans may be: 1) to see if Israel can hurt Iran and force Iran to accept the terms of the US nuclear agreement; 2) If Iran is tough, then the two countries will continue to attack each other. If Iran's missiles are almost depleted and its fighter jets are destroyed without long-range strike capabilities, it cannot be ruled out that the United States will take action to completely eliminate Fordhal in the final stage. If we reach the second step, it is estimated that both the United States and Israel have plans to undermine the Iranian regime. After Trump's statement, he began to look forward to the future. 1. What are the considerations behind Trump's decision to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities? 1) The primary aspect is still being dragged down by the Neta. Neta has long understood that it is difficult for Israel alone to forcibly dismantle Iran's nuclear facilities, and Israel itself does not even have a ground penetrating bomb. From the beginning, the purpose of the internal tower was very clear, and the only way to forcefully resolve Iran would be for the United States. As Israel continues to bomb Iran and retaliate, missiles hit the city center of Tel Aviv, causing discomfort for Israel. At this point, the pro Jewish forces in the United States will not sit idly by. 2) Trump will not miss the great opportunity to deter and hinder Iran's nuclear program. If Iran cannot abandon its nuclear program through negotiations before, it can only reverse its nuclear program for several years through force, even if it cannot completely destroy Iran's nuclear facilities. To achieve this, Trump will reach its goal 3) Now is the weakest time for Iran: Israel's continuous bombing over the past week has destroyed at least 30% of Iran's missile launchers, and most of them have moved to the northeastern region of Iran, further away from their targets; Attacking Iran's military command system, although quickly filling positions, it is difficult to immediately restore to the previous level; Israel has gained air superiority over Iran, greatly increasing the safety of its fighter jets; In the past year or so, the "Shia arc" that Iran has built over the past decade has basically been dismantled (Hamas has been crippled, Hezbollah has been severely reduced, Syria has changed, Iraqi militias are dormant, and only the Houthis are still strong but gradually distancing themselves from Iran). In Trump's opinion, Iran's counterattack is possible at this time, but the degree of risk should be controllable, which is also the easiest in the current market Because of the above reasons, Trump believes that as long as the air force is deployed, it can be achieved with less consumption and greater benefits, which is also an important reason for Trump to make a decision. At the same time, it can also provide an explanation for the support of Jewish forces in Neta and within the country. Moreover, it can also silence the MAGA anti war group (which has recently been highly divided in domestic public opinion in the United States). It can only strike Iran's nuclear facilities to prevent the further expansion of Iran's nuclear program, as Iran's nuclear armed countries do not want to see the MAGA group. 2. Will the Chuanpu Society change the regime of Iran? 1) It seems that what Trump said last night is true, but as previously said, the change of regime cannot be achieved by bombing alone. Especially for a big country like Iran, its military strength is not weak. It is difficult to overthrow the regime without deploying ground troops, and Iran is all on the plateau, not Iraq. US armored vehicles can drive directly from Kuwait to Baghdad without taking the road. Personally, I think Trump should not send ground troops, otherwise it would be easy to fall into the long-term war of attrition and repeat the mistakes of Iraq and Afghanistan. Moreover, the opposition within Iran currently lacks armed forces, making it difficult for them to cooperate internally and externally. 2) This kind of shouting is essentially a combination of hitting and pulling, giving Iran a big blow and then saying a few harsh words to force Iran to return to the negotiating table. It can be seen from the action after yesterday's Trump bombing that the victory was announced just after the bombing without confirming whether Iran's nuclear facilities were destroyed. On the one hand, it is a must to win, on the other hand, it also implies that this is the end in the short term. Forcing Iran back to the negotiating table to accept the terms of the peace talks, letting the pro American faction take power at most, and then secretly operating the color revolution to let the Iranian regime collapse from within is probably Trump's most beautiful script. 3. Will Iran block the Strait of Hormuz? Looking at the decreasing number of missiles launched by Iran in its recent counterattacks, it is not that the inventory is insufficient, but rather that with Israel holding air superiority and continuously cruising and bombing the Iranian missile launchers, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Iran to maintain daily missile launches. Although the Iranian parliament passed a bill yesterday to block the Strait of Hormuz, the final decision still needs to be made by Khamenei. Among Iran's major allies and partners, except for Russia, which can benefit from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the crisis of a full-scale war in the Middle East, other countries such as China, India, Brazil, the European Union, and Arab countries are extremely unwilling to see a full-scale war in the Middle East that could trigger a terrible energy crisis. The sharp rise in crude oil prices would seriously harm the interests of these countries. It should be possible to mediate or persuade Iran not to block the Strait of Hormuz. Many people believe that Iran cannot completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The width of the Strait of Hormuz is not large, and as long as there are large caliber artillery and surface mines, it is enough to block it. The blockade is also a major blow to Iran's own crude oil exports, and the domestic economy will be further affected. It is estimated that Khamenei is more cautious, 4. What is the impact on the market? In the absence of ground troops from the United States, the essence of the impact of the worsening conflict in the Middle East on the market is the medium-term impact of oil prices. Of course, the short-term panic and risk aversion Trump's choice of starting at the weekend are also considered in this regard. The currency market bears both panic and risk aversion. As long as the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked, it is difficult for oil prices to soar significantly. But if the situation in the Middle East is not completely eased, as mentioned on the 15th, oil prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. The short-term panic sentiment in the past will restore stability to the market and return to its own driving logic. However, the impact of the slow rise in oil prices on inflation in June and July cannot be ignored (this should be reflected in the CPI data for July)