Many friends have left messages asking, will Iran directly attack the US mainland? Or the war may continue to expand. My personal opinion is that there is a possibility of the war expanding, but the probability of directly attacking the homeland is not high. Firstly, there is the issue of capability. Although Iran's current ballistic missiles are sufficient to reach Israel, Syria, and even US bases in the Middle East, it is basically impossible to cross the Atlantic and reach the US mainland. Iran does not have intercontinental missiles, nor does it have global delivery capabilities, let alone air superiority and logistical supplies. Next is the issue of consequences. If Iran really hits the US mainland, even a symbolic attack, the US response is almost certain to be a full-scale retaliation, not just military strikes, but comprehensive sanctions, oil cuts, and even regime change. The Iranian leadership is not unaware of this. They dare to engage in proxy wars in the surrounding areas, but it is not worth betting on the fate of the country. How will Iran retaliate? This is the key point: 1. Attacking US military bases in the Middle East, such as those in Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Bahrain, and other places, which have already been attacked multiple times and are much more difficult to defend than the US mainland, is the most likely to happen, and even is already happening. 2. Using proxies such as Hezbollah, Houthis, and other organizations to attack US allies or assets, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and even the routes around the Suez Canal. http://3.xn--io0a7i Attacks may be easily overlooked, but in reality, Iran's attacks on Israel and Saudi Arabia have already occurred at the cyber level, with US infrastructure, financial systems, and even civilian platforms theoretically being attack surfaces. 4. The risk of hostages and terrorist attacks is rising, which is probably the most worrying thing for the United States now. After all, many Americans are stationed or on business in countries in the Middle East. Once Iran intends to operate, it is likely to cause a regional diplomatic crisis. Overall, Iran's threat to the US mainland is limited, which means that its impact on the market will not expand infinitely. However, it is likely to find opportunities to take action on the periphery. Currently, as it is still the weekend, the US stock market has not responded yet. If there is still no positive news of a ceasefire for investors when the US stock market opens on Monday. It may cause risk aversion among US stock investors.