
qinbafrank|Jun 22, 2025 01:48
Given the uncertain extent of damage to its nuclear facilities, it appears that Iran took precautionary measures before the attack.
1. In fact, the United States has also taken preventive measures. Yesterday, B2 was mobilized to Guam not to strike Iran, but to deter the Asia Pacific region. Previously, several B2 aircraft had been deployed at the US military's Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, and many people were unaware that Diego Garcia meant the US military's "Guam" in the Indian Ocean.
This time, the United States dropped 6 anti drilling missiles and 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran's Fordo nuclear facility.
2. I talked about it a week ago, and I personally speculate that the attitude of Americans is:
1) See if Israel can hurt Iran and force it to accept the terms of the US nuclear agreement;
2) If Iran is tough, then the two countries will continue to attack each other. If Iran's missiles are almost depleted and its fighter jets are destroyed without long-range strike capability, it is not ruled out that the United States will take action to eliminate the Fordo nuclear facility in the final stage.
Today, we have indeed reached the second stage
3. If Iran prepares to withdraw its nuclear materials in advance, the next one or two days are crucial: on the one hand, it depends on whether there are any further reports of complete destruction or partial damage (depending on the degree of damage) after the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities; Is Iran launching a tough counterattack or actively seeking peace if it is afraid of being attacked?
If the Americans find that it has not been completely destroyed, there will inevitably be a second attack. And since we have already taken action, we still need to destroy the Iranian navy's strength to ensure that the Strait of Hormuz will not be blocked by Iran.
Will it come to the third step of the plan to shake the Iranian regime a week ago? Although today Trump still denies not seeking regime change in Iran, this temptation is very great.
4. It seems that Iran may find it difficult to compromise at this point, and the possibility of further escalation of the situation is not small.
1) Iran continues to take the lead and the situation further escalates. The United States and Israel must ensure the complete destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, missile launchers, and navy, and ensure that there is no defense capability;
2) Iran seeks peace and completely abandons its nuclear weapons program, causing the situation to escalate despite repeated tensions.
3) As for the dispatch of ground troops, Trump is very cautious in the short term. A few days ago, here was https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/1935516103796810127? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A has talked about that Trump can be attacked by quick action surgery. Once the ground forces are deployed, it is easy to fall into a protracted war of attrition. Trump estimates that he does not want to fall into attrition, and the domestic maga community may not accept it.
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