Two things can be true: 1) Waller hasn't always been in the center of the committee, and he can bounce between the guardrails. He was an advocate for earlier tapering in 2021 but swallowed those reservations after the data rug-pulled the hawks in Aug/Sept 2021. He made a big pivot in Q4 2023, putting down six cuts (the lowest dot) in the December '23 dots, on the expectation that inflation might have moved down meaningfully. He un-doved after the string of higher inflation prints in Q1 2024, and then re-doved as inflation improved. 2) Waller could have an outside shot at becoming Fed chair next year, and it would be clever to pre-register a view that inflation isn't the thing to worry about as tariffs bite and then cash in if that's what happens. Unlike some of the other would-be candidates, he hasn't spent a decade talking hawkishly only to find a president who wants a dovish policy. And unlike the current chair, he doesn't have to worry as much about being wrong twice on inflation because that's not going to be his legacy.