Orange Evening Interpretation 6.19 The US stock market is rising, and the cryptocurrency market is also rising. Only the altcoins in my hand are falling. We all know that this bull market is bought by institutions, but everyone has always had confidence that when institutions buy to a certain extent and the price of the pancake is high enough, funds will overflow into the altcoin pool. However, no one expected that on the eve of this critical point, the market's gameplay would change The funds that couldn't catch up with the big pie changed their mindset and started chasing cryptocurrency stocks. Last night, Circle skyrocketed by 34%, Coin skyrocketed by 16%, causing the bull market that should have belonged to knockoffs to run into the stock market. With various micro strategy imitations emerging like mushrooms after rain, the long tail funds in the market will soon be fixed, making it even more uncertain about the native knockoffs in the cryptocurrency circle. Now, any knockoffs that have some potential are probably in traditional market docking institutions. Not to mention buying a shell to go public like Sun Ge, at least they have joined forces with several listed companies to develop reserve plans. The resources of the traditional market are also limited. Early projects that linked to the release of cryptocurrency stocks eat meat, but later they can only drink soup. Those old coins that do nothing and cannot rise in the cryptocurrency market may eventually end up in the hands of waves of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moving towards zero, in short, this round of shanzhai is really difficult to play, and it may be the final settlement of the previous rounds of shanzhai cattle, Then the cryptocurrency market and stock market began to move towards a new era of stock currency and cryptocurrency stocks. It is expected that the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting last night did not cut interest rates. The dot plot shows that there will be two interest rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who are not expected to cut interest rates this year has risen to seven, and the expectation of a rate cut next year has been reduced to one. Powell continues to shout uncertainty, and the current economic situation is suitable for observation. Of course, Trump's abuse of Powell's fools is within the expected range. Chuanzi still proposes to cut interest rates by 200bp or 250bp. Unfortunately, Powell is hard to yield to him. The market generally believes that Powell will follow his predecessor's hawkish stance to end the curtain call. However, there should be expectations next year, because the next chairman appointed by Trump must be a super dove, and it may be possible to cut interest rates by 200bp after taking office. In short, the expectation of cutting interest rates will be postponed to next year. The conflict between Iran and Israel is still quite anxious. Last night, Iran made harsh remarks to remind the world of the great events of the past century, which frightened the market. I saw several big Vs saying that they did not eat the nuclear bomb. As a result, Iran pulled the big missile, which was only a long-range super heavy missile. This wave of bragging was serious. Now it is said that Iran is seeking to negotiate with the United States. As a result, Trump didn't say it was too late to save face. Unexpectedly, you are so good at Iran that you have no ability to empty. The unconditional surrender you said is a gift to you. Now Israel's attack is stuck in the deep mountains of Iran's Fordo nuclear power plant, which is built 90 meters underground. The existing weapons of the Israeli army cannot carry out effective strikes, and can only rely on the US GBU57 bunker buster bomb and B2 Bombers can only be destroyed from the outside, so Israel should be talking about this support with the United States. Now it depends on whether Trump will provide weapons or persuade Khamenei to surrender in advance. I don't think underwear will be thrown. After all, it is 86, and it should not matter whether life or death, but Iran's domestic culture is fragmented. As long as Israel kills underwear accurately, pro American factions are expected to immediately raise a white flag to surrender, which is the best result. The worst result is that the United States will send troops to forcibly destroy all nuclear facilities, and then Iran will continue to resist, like Syria and Afghanistan. The war will eventually drag on to the ground war. Then the war will be fought for a while, which is not good for the market. Finally, speaking of the market, the trend of the big cake has actually stabilized. The FOMC and Israel Iran conflict last night had almost no impact on the big cake, and the amplitude has significantly decreased compared to the previous days. The purchasing power of institutions is still there, and the inflow of funds last night was close to 400 million yuan. Then various listed companies also bought again. In fact, the price of the big cake is still very supportive, while Ethereum is relatively weaker. Although there was a net inflow last night, the eth/BTC exchange rate has been at a low level in recent days. The current focus of the market is not on ETH, because the stablecoin bill was passed, so the stablecoin sector is the sweet spot in the eyes of off exchange funds. This is also why the circle is so strong, and even yesterday afternoon, it was a local dog on the chain, the US dollar. The market value of DP has surged all the way to 150 million, but today it was poured and dropped directly to over 300000. However, various USD on the chain Tugou can see that the hot spot in the market is on stablecoins. It is said that many institutions have started to look for Paxos to buy one click stablecoin production services. However, for ordinary retail investors, there are only two ways to participate in stablecoins. One is to buy BTC, because as long as stablecoins have a sufficient quantity level on the chain, BTC will become another form of gold, after all, stablecoins are constantly issued, while Bitcoin is deflationary; In addition, buying infrastructure and leading RWA sectors on the blockchain is the most direct track for carrying stablecoins. Do not buy those stable projects, as this is a wild path. Even regular troops must first suppress bandits when entering the market, which is called bandits.