
Joseph Lubin|Jun 19, 2025 07:13
This is a very strong piece of work in so many ways. Well articulated thesis. Good level of detail on Ethereum. And clear implications drawn re ETH as a global reserve currency and fuel that powers the future increasingly decentralized economy.
There is much to appreciate in this analysis and narrative and I think the level of detail regarding how Ethereum works was just right. Probably everyone who reads this work will learn something and be stoked by the thesis.
The thesis that "while BTC should be valued as Gold 2.0, ETH should be valued on the scale of the emergent decentralized global economy," was an early metaphor in the space, and it remains a very powerful one. Likening ETH to digital oil or energy that powers the future economy is a good proxy for this metaphor.
But this top tier thought piece has one major structural flaw -- a pretty deep structural flaw: it is not bullish enough.
It is not bullish enough on the profound societal paradigm shift Ethereum will drive and embody. But this is understandable, as none of us at this point can fathom how fast, creative and expansive the hybrid human-machine intelligence society will grow. Many of us are convinced that it will grow largely on decentralized rails. So it is not a great leap to suggest that the value resident on and flowing through Ethereum, which will constitute a large portion of Web3 -- the re-decentralized -- will be orders of magnitude larger that today's global GDP. Just look at how the energy, chips and data center spend is growing exponentially and how AI is accelerating everything.
There are various components that could contribute to the valuation of ETH. I think the two most important components are (a) the world computer / digital oil / energy model elucidated in the report and (b) what I like to call the trust commodity model. If trust is considered a new kind of virtual commodity, then ETH would be the highest grade or gold standard of trust on the planet, largely due to how decentralized Ethereum is. Both of these models will lead to a giant monetary premium for ETH. I have sketched the trust commodity idea here:
https://x.com/ethereumJoseph/status/1930080358118175046
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