What has been the impact of the Israel Iran conflict Let's talk about the macro first, the main impact is still the expectation of interest rate cuts Firstly, there is inflation. The main cause of inflation in Iran comes from oil prices. Wall Street estimates that if Hormuz is blocked, oil prices may rise to $90-130/bbl. Given that for every $10 increase in oil prices, CPI rises by 0.4-0.5pct, this means that if oil prices break $100, the probability of interest rate cuts before September is not high, and inflation risks continue. Then there is the risk aversion sentiment, with stocks plummeting and spot gold hitting historical highs. The next step is to see if Iran wants to escalate the conflict. If so, the Fed's consensus on two interest rate cuts this year will be forced to be postponed, the pace of liquidity recovery will be disrupted, and the market will not be able to withstand the pressure and continue to be sluggish. Of course, the impact on the cryptocurrency industry is somewhat too obvious. The total market value evaporated by $420 billion in 24 hours, not to mention unlocking dilution. Under the risk aversion of funds, most investors prioritize cutting off high leverage knockoffs. Don't have any short-term thoughts about the knockoff season, Bitcoin's resistance to decline remains superior to mainstream knockoffs, with funds briefly flowing into short positions in derivatives and stablecoins, However, the good news is that most investors first convert their chips back to stablecoins in US dollars instead of fiat currencies, which is clearly different from the MEME crash at the beginning of the year. As the saying goes, before the uncertainty premium is completely hedged by the central bank and fiscal policy, surviving with U is the optimal criterion for high volatility periods.