
飞凡|Jun 10, 2025 02:47
Why did Bitcoin reach $110000 today (Monday night)
The core path is loose macro expectations → structural buying to attract funds → supply side contraction → technical and emotional release
Macro expectations have loosened: Expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have significantly increased,
Especially Trump's public pressure on Powell has led the market to reprice the probability of a summer interest rate cut;
In addition, short-term macro negative factors (such as tariff issues) have been postponed, risk appetite has returned, and funds are beginning to be willing to flow into high beta assets.
Macro narrative provides a risk on favorable wind environment, which is a prerequisite for funds to dare to move.
The core driving force is firm structural buying, which is the main upward engine. We can see two funds draining the market:
The net buying volume of ETFs since 2025 (over 81000 BTC) has fully covered and exceeded the new coins mined by miners during the same period (approximately 72000 BTC)
2. Listed companies continue to include BTC in their balance sheets (with over 3% of positions locked across the entire network), coupled with events such as the significant increase in Circle IPO and Cboe's launch of a new BTC index
While demand is strong, supply is contracting. On chain data shows that the BTC reserves of the exchange have fallen to their lowest point since 2018 (with movable usage below 2.6 million coins).
After halving in April 2024, the daily new output is only about 450 BTC (as mentioned earlier, not enough to fill the gaps of ETFs).
The result is that active circulation and active sellers in the market are extremely scarce. In this state of low liquidity and rigid supply, even a slight increase in funds can easily drive prices and amplify the buying effect several times.
Another noteworthy point is that the liquidation of over 310 million US dollars on June 6th happened to wash away the long position leverage, return the funding rate to a healthy level, and alleviate the market burden. After several days of bottoming out, the price has entered the critical zone of $109k - $111k today, where a large number of short stop loss orders and margin deposits have accumulated.
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