
Phyrex|Jun 04, 2025 21:27
The difficulty of today's assignment is not high, with both the US stock market and BTC maintaining slight fluctuations, and overall market sentiment leaning towards neutrality. However, despite the small price fluctuations, the event density is exceptionally rich, and the structural signals behind it are worth digging deeper.
In the field of encryption, the milestone event of the first compliance implementation after the repeal of SAB 121 law has finally emerged, and JPMorgan Chase has officially launched a compliant lending business collateralized by Bitcoin and cryptocurrency ETFs. As one of the world's largest financial institutions, its action marks the first official recognition of the "fully financial product" status of cryptocurrency in traditional finance. Although KYC/AML processes still need to be followed, this pathway has been established, laying a compliance foundation for more flexible cryptocurrency financing in the future.
At the same time, Circle's IPO also brought positive news, with oversubscription reaching up to 25 times. As the first company to focus on compliant issuance of US dollar stablecoins as its core business and move towards IPO, Circle's listing marks the official integration of cryptocurrency infrastructure into the Wall Street system. The market generally expects USDC to be the first stablecoin to comply with the requirements of the US stablecoin act and is expected to become an industry template for achieving stablecoin hard acceptance.
In the traditional market, the earthquake will be more intense. Trump once again called on the Federal Reserve and Powell to cut interest rates in ADP, but in fact, the current interest rate cut is not even expected in the third quarter. Musk, who strongly supports Trump to take office, also publicly expressed his break with Trump, publicly criticized Trump's spending bill in the great beauty and called it "disgusting", and accused the legislators who support the bill of being "shameful". Today, he also issued a document calling for the repeal of the bill.
Musk pointed out that the bill would cause the US federal government deficit to surge to $2.5 trillion, increasing the burden on the nation, while Trump continued to push forward his policy agenda without making a clear response to Musk's criticism.
In terms of geopolitics, Trump stated today that he has had a long conversation with Putin, but also indicated that Putin will retaliate against Ukraine. It seems that a ceasefire in the Russia Ukraine conflict cannot be achieved in the short term. Although these events have not had a significant impact on the market at present, they ultimately point to Trump's leadership over the United States. Whether it is the encryption industry, the macro market or the geographical pattern, the core logic is tightening around Trump's policy focus. Both the cryptocurrency industry and the US political economy have been tied to Trump's belt.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, loss making investors are still the main force of turnover at present. Although the turnover rate has decreased compared to yesterday, it is still at a high level. The market is more concerned about Friday's non farm payroll data, especially the unemployment rate data, which is still one of the most important data that the Federal Reserve is most concerned about. However, from the current environment, unless there is a significant economic downturn, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates before the end of the third quarter is still very low.
In terms of support, the range of $93000 to $98000 is still the most stable support. Although more chips are shifting towards the range of $100000 to $105000, this group of investors still focus on short-term investments and are greatly influenced by short-term prices.
This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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