雷神Value
雷神Value|Jun 04, 2025 09:49
Let's continue talking about the stablecoin bill. Let's talk about the possible changes to USDT, also known as Tether, under the GENIUS Act. USDT may face a new round of market share decline pressure. In the last bull market, USDT was already under pressure, and USDC once approached USDT's market share. However, it suddenly encountered a banking crisis, causing a mid way crash on its overtaking path, and finally recovered. USDT, with its stable coin price and natural growth, coupled with high interest rates, has not been doing too well in recent years. With plenty of money, it has been crazily buying coins for investment in recent years. But this change in market environment will inevitably bring new pressure to USDT. The GENIUS Act imposes strict requirements on stablecoin issuers, including: Reserve transparency: high-quality liquid assets (such as US dollar deposits and short-term treasury bond) must be held 1:1 and disclosed publicly. Regular audits are also required to comply with anti money laundering (AML) and sanction requirements. The issuer must register as a federally qualified non bank payment stablecoin issuer (regulated by OCC) or operate under state-level standards. Strengthen information disclosure and reduce systemic risks. The above conditions are relatively suitable for USDT in terms of reserve assets. The rest can only be said to still need improvement. For so many years, USDT has been hovering on the edge of compliance and has been under scrutiny before, but it has survived. In recent years, they have been living better and better. But now that there is a bill, it will not be easy to get away with it again. The competition we face in the future is also fierce, and there have been regulatory issues that are not conducive to long-term development. For stablecoin regulatory agencies that do not comply with the GENIUS Act, punitive measures can be taken. For example, it is prohibited to operate in the US market and provide stablecoin services to US users. Once sanctioned, the exchange will definitely be taken down. It goes without saying that Coinbase and Kraken are now considered half compliant exchanges in the United States, and Binance may also be forced to be delisted due to regulatory influence. That would have a significant impact. Another issue is the blockade of payment channels, restrictions on banking services, and so on, which may make Tether particularly uncomfortable and even lead to unstable coin prices again. Therefore, USDT must also closely follow the law to adjust its compliance strategy. It's easy to say that USDT will also conduct audits and release audit reports. Registering in the United States is also no problem. All of these can be solved with money, so Tether won't be short of money. The cost of compliance is still affordable. But cultural transformation is the biggest obstacle. USDT, which has always been on the edge of compliance and is highly favored by the gray industry, may feel uncomfortable in an increasingly compliant regulatory environment. For example, the complicated anti money laundering requirements for USDT. To meet the requirements of anti money laundering, KYC is definitely necessary. This is quite difficult for a large number of users who are not willing to expose their privacy. A complete shift towards compliance mode may lead to the loss of some grey market users. Compliance has sufficient resources for Tether to cope, but the trouble is that it may not be willing to lose users. This is the annoyance of industry giants under environmental changes. I think Tether's possible strategy is to launch a USDT that is suitable for the US market, such as "USDT-US", specifically to meet the requirements of the GENIUS Act, while retaining the existing USDT to serve non US markets and maintain its competitiveness in the gray industry. USDT can be easily converted to USDT-US for US users and institutions. Then a series of anti money laundering measures will be taken against USDT-US, and US users will be restricted from using USDT to avoid unnecessary regulatory penalties. For example, the US exchange only supports USDT-US. When using cryptocurrency in the United States, KYC verification is required. Track the usage of the international version of USDT by American users. Restricting US users from bypassing restrictions on using raw USDT through VPN or other means. Being forced to change is already a path that USDT has to accept. But what will definitely change is not only the operational architecture, but also the way of expansion. The new application scenarios and user groups of stablecoins are not the strengths of USDT. Technology and financial giants' compliant stablecoins quickly seize the market for cross-border payments by leveraging their existing customer networks and emerging usage scenarios RWA、 Online payment and other scenarios. There is also the USD1 stablecoin of the Trump family, which holds a "royal gold medal" and naturally has a large amount of resources to support its expansion. With the extensive layout and compliance brand of Coinbase, and the willingness to invest money, USDC's position in Binance is already precarious. Moreover, USDT's efforts in these emerging stablecoin fields are not significant, and it relies more on its original network effects to naturally grow. It is not easy for USDT to become a stablecoin giant today, and it may be difficult to capture too much new market share in the future. If the stablecoin bill is passed and the scale of stablecoins grows rapidly in emerging usage scenarios, the market share of USDT may decline significantly. I don't know if Tether is going to adopt the strategy of surrounding cities from rural areas to continue cultivating the non American stablecoin market, or if it is also choosing to invest money and actively cooperate with institutions to build its own new ecology, and also make efforts in the new market to stabilize its position as a leader? After the implementation of the stablecoin bill, there will inevitably be fierce competition in the stablecoin market. There are too many unknowns that we cannot predict, too many new products, new business models, and new ways of competition will emerge. A new cryptocurrency market is coming. Any prediction of the future based on past coin market conditions is too prone to errors.
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