
Owen.btc 🟧|May 30, 2025 11:08
Uncle Cat's organization is very comprehensive. After the ruling was made yesterday, due to my unfamiliarity with the relevant laws, I first sought stability and then collected some research reports. There are about 5 conclusions to share along Uncle Cat's post:
one ️⃣ This is a setback in the process of implementing comprehensive tariffs, which is a tactical obstruction rather than a complete reversal. Trump still has many means to continue promoting tariffs in the future;
two ️⃣ Industry tariffs: Tariffs on automobiles, chips, and other products can still be implemented through 232 and 301 investigations and will not be affected;
three ️⃣ National tariffs: Mexican and Canadian tariffs within the North American Empire circle may be reduced 🀄 Europe will definitely maintain a hawkish stance;
four ️⃣ Serious internal struggles: tariffs and tax cuts will continue to raise long-term interest rates, and in order to control the deficit, Trump needs the Federal Reserve to conduct low key "yield curve management", such as cutting interest rates and stopping balance sheet contraction (expansion);
five ️⃣ If tariffs encounter resistance, then OBBB style fiscal expansion will also encounter resistance, making it difficult to determine whether this is a positive or negative risk preference;
In short, from a transactional perspective, this is not yet a risk on the right-hand side trend after the comprehensive reversal of tariffs, but it reflects the increasing internal resistance, and there is a possibility that tariffs and tax reductions may not meet expectations.
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