
Tracy|May 26, 2025 00:21
How long can Virtuals continue to be popular?
From a market perspective, it can still be popular for 2-3 months.
But the reason why this wave of popularity has an upper limit is that there are two problems that are destined to explode behind it 👇
=Firstly, why are Virtuals so popular? =
one ️⃣ Strong incentive through points mechanism
Earn points=earn quota=receive airdrops=rank weighting
The rule design is highly gamified, and user behavior is precisely guided
two ️⃣ The fantasy of x100 sudden wealth keeps reproducing
Genesis projects such as VIRGEN and ARBUS frequently generate x40 and x100 returns
Attracted a continuous stream of new players FOMO to enter the game
three ️⃣ Step on the main storyline narrative
AI craze+on chain interaction+productized Launchpad
Gather all the popular narratives from Web3 and become instantly popular
four ️⃣ Full circulation+lock free warehouse online mechanism
Pre sale opens immediately, with almost no selling pressure
Very friendly to hype and extremely conducive to emotional amplification
=But reality is also quietly changing=
The AI Agent sector as a whole fell below 11B (-8.83%)
However, Mindshare of Virtuals rose against the trend to 37.53% (+4.74%)
This indicates that users are still crazily participating in Genesis
But it also means that the allocation is diluted and the internal competition of points intensifies
=Two core issues are about to be exposed=
🚨 Core issue one: Points are inflating
1. Release 80 million points daily, lacking destruction and usage scenarios
2. The more users there are, the lower the value of points
➡️ If no control, integral=foam
🚨 Core issue 2: Unsustainable returns
1. x40 and x100 are individual masterpieces, and most projects have become mediocre
Once users cannot make money, the popularity will quickly fade away
➡️ Decline in earnings=emotional collapse
=How to break the deadlock? Two major directions=
✅ Resolve point inflation
1. Introduce a point consumption mechanism (such as deducting points for participating in pre-sales)
2. Introduce a seasonal system, with rewards ranking higher relative to the former
3. Add pledge/lock up models to enhance the value of points
✅ Improve project quality and productization
1. Strengthen the screening mechanism, pledge VIRTUAL by the project party, and bind long-term responsibilities
2. Set up an income dividend model after going online, and allow holding users to share profits
3. Staged airdrops, released based on project operational performance, guiding long-term accompanying operations
=Summary=
Virtuals still has a way to go from "x100 Launchpad" to becoming a true "AI Agent Economy"
Now, it's still the dividend period,
But in three months, it is highly likely to be the first round of life and death tests.
...
If there are any overlooked or misjudged points, please feel free to correct and communicate!
@virtuals_io @felixincrypto
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