qinbafrank
qinbafrank|May 23, 2025 06:55
Holders of US Treasury bonds have been changing their holdings since ten years ago. In the impression of many people, the proportion of US foreign investors (including central bank reserves, overseas funds, etc.) holding US bonds is very high. It was indeed high more than ten years ago. In 2013, the proportion of US foreign investors holding US bonds was 50%. Since then, the proportion of foreign investors has been decreasing year by year to 33%. The latest data shows that the proportion of US foreign investors holding US bonds has dropped to 22%. Domestic mutual funds, pension funds, various levels of government, the Federal Reserve, and individuals hold a total of 78% of US bonds. Brother Ni, before @ Phyrex_ni: https://(x.com)/pyrex_ni/status/191147652575895709? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A arranges the latest position distribution of US treasury bond bonds in detail (Figure 2) The foreseeable trend is that the proportion of US domestic holdings of US bonds will continue to rise in the future, while the proportion of US overseas investors will continue to decline. From this perspective: Previously, the US had a current account (related to trade tariffs) deficit and exported US dollars, which were then returned to the US to purchase US bonds and other US dollar assets, resulting in a capital account (financial) surplus. This model actually began to loosen ten years ago, as the proportion of overseas holdings of US bonds decreased by 28% thirteen years ago. Further reflection: If the proportion of domestic holdings of US Treasury bonds in the United States further increases from the current 78% to over 85%, and the proportion of overseas holdings decreases to less than 15%, then the impact and volatility of overseas investors' behavior on US Treasury bonds may not be as significant as it is now. From these perspectives, we also understand the practical significance of the Trump government in promoting the stable currency act. In the context of the exchange of positions of US bond holders, the proportion of overseas investors holding US bonds has been declining year by year: through the stable currency act, we can stabilize the monopoly position of the US dollar stable currency and find new purchasing power for US bonds. If the scale of stablecoins continues to expand to trillions of US dollars, or even two or three trillion US dollars in the future, the increment brought by stablecoins will replace the decrease in overseas investors. Have you previously talked about https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/1905254289809060024 in the stablecoin wave tweets? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A
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