The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter|May 21, 2025 19:42
We are on an unsustainable fiscal path: The US Debt-to-GDP ratio is set to reach 220% by 2055, according to the CBO. This assumes the 2017 tax reductions will be extended indefinitely. That would be a whopping 64 percentage points higher than the baseline projection. In this case, the budget deficit would reach 12.3% of GDP by 2054, 5 percentage points higher than the base forecast. This would be even higher than the 9.8% recorded in 2009. By comparison, in 2020, the deficit hit 14.7% of GDP, only below WWII levels. The debt crisis is an understatement.
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