
Phyrex|May 17, 2025 18:16
Another day passed without any surprises. The difficulty of today's assignment decreased sharply. Yesterday, I was still researching the short selling space of BTC with @ CatoCryptoM Cat Uncle. Actually, I repeatedly went long and short around $104200 to $103100, but I felt that the efficiency was not high. I planned to narrow the space to around $104100 to $103500, but unexpectedly, after closing the position, I never returned to $104 again. Cat Uncle had a great time this time.
He opened a position of 104500, and when I leveled it up, he said he would get it next week. So I ate a little bit and haven't had any positions since then, mainly because of Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating. I don't think this will have a big impact on BTC, but it does affect the upper limit of Bitcoin, but I don't plan to adjust it for now. I'll wait and see if it will come back on Sunday.
Today, Trump is playing the devil in the macro field again. On the one hand, he appealed to Powell to cut interest rates as soon as possible, on the other hand, he asked Wal Mart not to increase prices, and should take the initiative to bear the problem of tariffs. You should know that in 2024, Wal Mart's net profit margin will be about 2.5%. If all tariffs, especially China's tariffs, are to be accepted, I roughly calculated that if every 1% tariff is borne, it will swallow up about 6% of the total net profit.
In other words, if Wal Mart bears 10% of the tariff, the profit margin will be reduced by 60%. This will not only reduce shareholder returns, but also affect Wal Mart's reinvestment ability and supply chain pricing power, ultimately forcing it to increase prices, or layoff, or outsourcing production transfer.
Under this policy contradiction, the market has fallen into a paradox of wanting low inflation while not giving companies room to adjust prices.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, it was already so quiet by Saturday, and it is estimated that it will be even quieter on Sunday. The trading volume has been decreasing throughout the week, and the turnover rate has also dropped very severely. Now, investors' sentiment towards trading is very low. Although the price has been maintained well, the liquidity is really a mess.
The decrease in turnover rate has a smaller impact on support. Short term investors have been inactive in the past 24 hours, and now it seems that the trading volume has decreased significantly every weekend.
This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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