Yesterday, I briefly left a sentence under the Iron Pillar post, but in fact, I have been wanting to have a chat. After discussing macroeconomic and economic issues for such a long time, there have been very few internal topics in China (last time we briefly talked about the current economic structural contradictions mainly caused by the distribution system). After all, since "94" and "519", the rise and fall of the cryptocurrency circle has gradually disconnected from the domestic economy. If we focus on the cryptocurrency industry, there is not much need to talk about the Chinese economy. But in the series of moves and system confrontations between China and the United States, from the trade war to the tariff war, it seems that both countries have suddenly reached a point where the central bank's monetary policy adjustment has failed and they must rely on fiscal policy to further promote social reform. The deflation that has been shouting for almost two years has finally come to the forefront. If China and the United States are one country, their cooperation can be said to be perfect, one responsible for production, one responsible for consumption, one responsible for beauty, and one responsible for earning money to support the family. Unfortunately, these two are not from the same family. No one wants to keep bowing their heads, blindfolded, and grinding, nor can they maintain their technological advantage without engaging in production and serving others for free. Originally, the confrontation between China and the United States was even a good thing for the bottom leeks, after all, Che Guevara once said, "After we leave, they will build schools and hospitals for you, and increase your wages. This is not because they have discovered their conscience, nor because they have become good people, but because we have been here." The ancients also said, "If you enter, there will be no outlaws; if you leave, there will be no enemies or foreign invaders, and the country will always perish. Since ancient times, it has been more difficult for reforms to touch interests than to touch the soul. Whether it is Wang Anshi or Zhang Juzheng, except for the founding fathers, reformers who manipulate the interests of millions of canal workers have basically had a bad ending. Even for founding emperors, reforms often end in failure due to the downfall of people and the decline of government. The People's Bank of China's warning this time is to express that I have done my best to distribute money and everything that needs to be done, but still cannot control the downward trend of prices, that is, cannot get rid of "deflation". What the Federal Reserve usually wants to express is that I have tried my best, but still cannot get rid of 'inflation'. Of course, these two foolish enemies cannot be resolved. One wishes to be responsible for global production, and the other wishes to be responsible for global consumption. Only if they can be resolved can there be a ghost. Apart from completely removing trade barriers, there is no short-term solution to the dilemma of both reform and relief. Even if each party blames the Ministry of Finance, the problem will still not be solved. I think many media are quoting Keynes's theory of pushing and pulling ropes. In fact, it is more appropriate to compare kite flying with Chinese life experience. When flying a kite, if the wind comes, you should keep flying the string, but not too fast or too slow. If the string is too fast and the kite is not strong enough, the kite will fall off. If the string is too slow, the tension is strong and the kite string is easy to break. Now the central bank has released enough water, but due to transmission mechanism issues, droughts and floods have led to death. The upper echelons have already realized this issue, whether it is JD's involvement in food delivery or encouraging fat customers to pay high wages, it is a preliminary experiment in reforming the distribution system. But vested interests will always counterattack, whether it's the recent attacks on Dahong's tourism in Europe or the Jiangsu Zhejiang capital's criticism of Pang Doulai, it's a concrete manifestation of unwillingness to give money to the lower class from their own pockets. Recently, the central bank has been cutting interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, but the general public has shown little sense of gain, with either unemployment or reduced income, leading to ridicule of GDP fraud. In theory, printing money will cause inflation, for example, Master Bao has always said that interest rates cannot be lowered because inflation cannot be lowered. Due to the highly developed productivity and low enough bottom income in China, relying solely on the internal upper level consumption capacity for deflation is an inevitable result in the absence of a large external market. After all, no matter how wealthy they are, they cannot afford to eat ten meals, sleep in 100 houses, or buy 200 cars in a day. But even relying on blockchain technology to directly send money to the bottom layer is not realistic. A production-oriented society and a consumer oriented society are inherently contradictory. You cannot demand low wages from the bottom layer to ensure export competitiveness, while also wanting these people with a monthly salary of 3000 to drive consumption. Relying on loans for consumption will cause countless social conflicts. In the past few years, whether it was the real estate economy or the infrastructure driven economy, it was nothing more than C-end lending and G-end lending. This type of borrowing and consumption is actually about concentrating future money to cash out and use it now. Although the short-term effect is immediate, it will inevitably lead to problems such as corruption, uneven distribution, and imbalanced development in the long run. So the central mother is actually urging the wealthy father to work hard. When the consumption multiplier and money multiplier collapse, no matter how much water is released, it will be of no use. But the finance department also has its own small calculations. He is very worried that if he spends the money and encounters problems, he will take the blame himself, so he does not work. After all, within the system, 'doing less is less wrong, not doing anything is good'. Apart from giving money to local governments and state-owned enterprises, there is no good way for finance to do so. However, wearing new shoes and following the old path can easily lead to problems such as local debt and urban investment bankruptcy again. The hidden debt of local debt has not been cleared yet, and now we dare not directly release water to local governments. Similar situations have actually occurred in China in history, but due to the generally young age of the cryptocurrency industry and the secrecy of domestic media, there are not many people who understand it. China also experienced an economic fluctuation process of inflation followed by deflation from the late 1980s to the early 1990s. This phenomenon is closely related to the "price breakthrough" reform implemented by the government in 1988. Finally, the "price breakthrough" reform was not successfully implemented and completely changed the direction of modern China, especially after the reform, which had a profound impact on China's subsequent economic reforms and macroeconomic policies. Looking at so many products on Pinduoduo that make people doubt whether merchants are making money or not, and the crazy national subsidies in the past six months, and then looking at the central bank's low price dumping internally, I cannot help but admire and say that I will see you for a long time. In fact, for humanity, confidence and the future are the most important. If we truly fall into a deflationary spiral, Japan's low desire society will be our future. Brainstorm, in the future, only black light factories and unmanned factories may produce on their own, and then the general public will shift to the tertiary industry and rely on blockchain technology to solve the distribution problem through attention economy and creativity economy. Or establish a new era salt and iron monopoly similar to that of houses, raise prices to reduce inventory, and reactivate enthusiasm. But how can we solve the problem of low birth rate, low marriage rate, high divorce rate, and high aging population in front of us. Ah, human development is a spiral forward process of constantly solving and creating problems. There is no one size fits all solution, nor is there a solution that only benefits without harm. We just need to take care of ourselves and live our own lives well. After all, the cultivation of peace and harmony ranks first.