𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|May 16, 2025 23:37
Wages and prices are inherently linked. 🔵Wage growth tends to grow steadily while 🔴prices are more volatile. When wages have outpaced prices for stretches, price inflation has tended to rise back up to meet it in y/y terms. Today's levels imply a 3.5-4% CPI at some point, assuming wage growth remains steady around its 4% level, which is has durably held for over a year. With labor supply already constrained, wages are likely to remain sticky while the economy is growing.
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