In the past few days, the cryptocurrency market has finally cooled down, with a hint of rising and falling. Last week, there was a sudden surge in momentum, as if it couldn't stop. Many people felt that Ethereum was going downhill when it rose from 1800 to 2100, and the result was that it was all the way to 2700. When the real good news came, significant progress was made in the negotiation of tariffs between China and the United States. After the equivalent tariffs were basically not increased, the market exhausted its last bit of strength and rose for two days. These two days are finally going to stop and rest. Buying expectations and selling facts seem to be another validation. Gold recently hit a new high and is now continuing to decline. Previously, it also rose continuously, blowing gold to the brink, as if it couldn't stop at all. But with the significant easing of the tariff war, the market is no longer as panicked about decoupling and global recession, and gold will also rise and fall. However, this does not mean that the trend of gold will end like this. The global structural economic problems have not ended, the US debt crisis has not been resolved, the crisis of recession has not been resolved, and the expectation of high inflation has not been lifted. If the future economy encounters problems, we still need to release water and rush for assistance. Countries will still be concerned about the US debt crisis and dare not allocate US bonds instead of increasing their allocation of gold. At the monetary policy level, the April CPI data unexpectedly cooled down (core CPI hit a three-year low of 0.2% month on month), which puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma - interest rate cuts may ease economic pressure, but the imported inflation caused by high tariffs is like the Damocles sword hanging over its head. At present, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts is also dragging on. From the original 100% interest rate cut in June, it is almost impossible to cut interest rates in June, and the probability of a rate cut in July is not particularly high, which is not stable at all. It can be said that although the macro risks have temporarily been eliminated, it doesn't seem to be much better. It is currently unknown when the money printing machine will start. Similar situations also occur at the regulatory level. Although the SEC has abolished the SAB 121 policy that hindered the entry of traditional financial institutions and lifted restrictions on banks' cryptocurrency business, critical XRP and Solana ETF approvals have been pushed back and forth. The current market is in a typical 'expectation vacuum period'. Everyone knows that the regulatory dividend is coming now, the market structure bill will be passed in the future, the stablecoin regulatory framework will also be passed, and even the US government may use sovereign funds to purchase Bitcoin in the future. However, these major benefits are slowly spinning in the gears of the bureaucratic machine and have not yet been implemented. The stablecoin bill has just been vetoed because the Democratic Party is dissatisfied with Trump's involvement in cryptocurrency and has voted against it. The real implementation policies are mostly revoking lawsuits, withdrawing investigations, and relaxing bank restrictions, without many substantive measures that can directly promote money, people, and projects. Everyone knows the dilemma of encryption now, which is that there are no people, no users, no money, and the story is almost hyped up. No one dares to invest heavily in these stagnant projects with basic fundamentals. In this state, funds in the cryptocurrency market are like moths trapped in a glass house, seeing the light but unable to find an exit, and can only release anxiety through frequent buying and selling. Looking ahead to the next three months, there are three clues worth keeping an eye on: firstly, the June Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. If a rate cut is made under tariff pressure, it may trigger a new round of liquidity driven increases; Secondly, the SEC's attitude towards Ethereum ETFs is that if the ETF staking function is approved, it will open up a new market worth billions of dollars; Finally, the stablecoin bill and market structure bill, once passed, may usher in an explosive growth of on chain assets, bringing a wave of investment opportunities for compliant on chain assets. At this moment, we need a 'farming mindset' rather than a 'gold rush mentality'. 60% are allocated to "policy cornerstone assets" such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which directly benefit from ETF fund inflows and regulatory clarity; 20% of the layout can generate growth dividends in stablecoins, RWAs, and other compliance narrative clear tracks. The remaining 20% should be kept in cash to cope with possible black swan events. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is unlikely to be too calm in the coming months, as factors such as tariffs, the Federal Reserve, and regulation are all stirring up. We need to be careful. However, as regulation improves and institutions enter, there is still hope for the market to move forward. We need to be patient and wait for the bull market conditions to mature. Fluctuating market conditions, both fixed investment and grid trading are good choices. Choose some altcoins with wide price fluctuations. Grid returns are quite high. 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