qinbafrank
qinbafrank|May 14, 2025 02:38
The latest development of the "Beautiful Bill" is that, based on the previous framework of the Beautiful Bill, Republican leaders in the House of Representatives have recently released the text of a new tax cut and spending reduction bill, which is planned to be submitted to the House for a full vote before Memorial Day. Afterwards, the bill will be submitted to the Senate for review. Trump welcomed the bill on Monday and called it a "grand and beautiful bill", hoping to sign it into law before July 4th. The core content closely related to the market includes: 1. Continuing the 17 year TCJA Act, the 2017 Tax Reduction Act almost benefited individuals at all income levels, but the main beneficiaries were high-income groups and businesses. The corporate tax reduction is permanent, while the personal portion will expire at the end of this year. The new bill not only extends the individual low tax rate, but also plans to gradually increase the state and local tax (SALT) deduction limit over the next four years: the limit for joint declaration by spouses will be raised to $32000, and the limit for individual declaration will be raised to $16000. 2. Immigration policy significantly tightened The bill allocates over $140 billion for border security and immigration enforcement. Among them, over 50 billion US dollars will be used to expand the US Mexico border wall and other defense facilities; Approximately 45 billion US dollars will be invested in the construction and operation of detention centers; Another $14 billion is dedicated to repatriation operations 3. Social welfare reform: healthcare and food aid face cuts The most controversial part of the bill is undoubtedly the significant cuts to Medicaid - expected to reduce spending by $625 billion over the next decade, which could result in 8.7 million people losing their health insurance and an additional 7.6 million uninsured people. The new requirement of the bill is to implement a co payment mechanism for individuals whose income exceeds 100% of the federal poverty line; Establish a work threshold for the majority of healthy, childless adults. 4. Targeted tax reduction measures Mainly targeting specific groups, including: 1) Additional standard deduction of $4000 for taxpayers aged 65 and above 2) Provide tax reduction for tip income in the service industry 3) Introduce a new deduction mechanism to exempt overtime pay from tax burden 4) Allow consumers who purchase American made cars to deduct up to $10000 in loan interest within 4 years 5) The tax credit for each child has been increased from $2000 to $2500 5. The defense budget has surged The bill allocates approximately $150 billion to the Department of Defense, covering multiple priority areas: 1) 34 billion US dollars for ammunition and supply chain strengthening 2) 33.6 billion US dollars invested in shipbuilding projects 3) US $20 billion is used for missile defense and space forces, including supporting the "Golden Dome" intercontinental missile defense system, which is one of the strategic arms projects promoted by Trump. 6. Debt ceiling raised At present, the US government has reached the debt ceiling, and the Treasury Department is using "extraordinary measures" to mitigate the risk of default. The Ministry of Finance stated that these measures will be exhausted by August at the latest. According to the bill, the debt ceiling will be raised by $4 trillion, leaving room for future budget execution. Fiscal conservatives within the Republican Party criticized the plan for failing to effectively curb the continuously expanding federal deficit. According to the latest assessment by the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) of Congress, the tax bill being pushed by the Republican Party will bring a deficit of $3.7 trillion to the US Treasury over the next decade. Although this figure falls within the scope of the $4.5 trillion budget blueprint approved by Congress earlier this year, it has already sparked dissatisfaction among budget hawks within the party. Of course, since the "budget mediation" process has already started, the Republican Party can bypass the lengthy debate threshold of 60 votes in the Senate and pass Trump's agenda without the assistance of the Democratic Party.
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