Phyrex
Phyrex|May 06, 2025 07:51
In the past two years (2023-2024), the upward logic of Bitcoin can be divided into two parts: external macro drivers and internal funding firepower What Brother Guilin said is exactly the same as my feeling. The external factors are mainly macro narratives. Starting from the beginning of 2023, it was because the Federal Reserve ended its rapid and significant interest rate hikes, and by mid-2023, it was because BlackRock applied for a Bitcoin spot ETF, which gave investors a FOMO. It wasn't until February 2024 that there was a sustained and significant amount of funds buying BTC, which also set a bottom price for the current BTC. My personal opinion has always been that around $70000 is a non recession bottom, and I have roughly calculated the cost for ETF investors, which is around $72000. Of course, the calculation is not accurate, but the upper and lower errors should not exceed 5%. Then from September 2024, Trumpneng is expected to be elected president. Of course, in the first quarter of 2024, the Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates, so it will help the market to retreat. By 2025, Trump's BTC strategic reserve will be expected, and by April 2025, it will be expected to be suspended. Overall, the current cryptocurrency market is still closely driven by events, and it is only in the absence of macro events that it becomes the home ground for liquidity.
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