Phyrex
Phyrex|May 01, 2025 20:37
Today's work is not difficult, and there is nothing too important in the macro field. After all, Trump has just passed the "crisis" of GDP. Even if it dumped the pot to Biden market, it also knows who is the maker of the crisis. Next is tomorrow's non-agricultural data. Employment may slip down, and the unemployment rate market is expected to be the same as last month. I personally think the probability of unemployment rate rising is quite high, of course, I may not be right. The rise of the US stock market and Bitcoin is partly due to the stability of macro sentiment, as there is no recession. Secondly, the good financial reports of Meta and Microsoft during the earnings season have stimulated the rise of the risk market. Therefore, the overall investor sentiment today is good. However, the release of Amazon's financial report before the US stock market closed was not very good, which may have some impact on the market. Of course, these are all short-term. Just before I went to bed, MSTR also released its financial report. As expected, this report was a bit dismal. Even according to the latest FASB accounting standards (in fact, MSTR has long used unfair valuation, there is no difference), MSTR lost $5.9 billion in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, mainly due to the decline in BTC prices. But if calculated at current prices, MSTR's profit exceeds $8 billion, and as for its software business, I don't think many people are interested. More should be in its financing ability. In the first quarter of 2025, MSTR raised $7.7 billion, but in April 2025, it raised $2.3 billion, which is equivalent to a total of $10 billion raised in the first four months, and announced plans for a new ATM. At the same time, approximately $1.05 billion of convertible bonds due in 2027 were redeemed, all of which were converted into shares without the need to repay principal. That is to say, there is no need to worry about any risk issues with MSTR before 2028. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, there has been an increase in turnover in the past 24 hours, but it is still within a reasonable range. Considering the pressure caused by GDP, the turnover rate is actually relatively low. From the data, it can be seen that recent profitable investors are the main ones leaving, while earlier investors are still waiting. This is completely consistent with the data we have seen recently. From a support perspective, the stable range of $93000 to $98000 remains. The price increase has not brought about higher trading volume, so the nature of liquidity has not changed. The rise is likely to be the driving force behind the stock market's rise during the US earnings season, and tomorrow's non farm payroll data may be the more important short-term impact. In addition, the support level between $81000 and $88000 continues to be disrupted, and there has been a significant transfer of BTC holdings. If tomorrow's non farm payroll data is good, there is a possibility of breaking through $98000. This tweet is sponsored by @ ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With Apex
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