
Phyrex|Apr 29, 2025 21:17
The macro focus of today's assignment is the White House's adjustment of tariffs on automobiles. Overseas brands of cars that meet 85% of their component composition in the United States can enjoy tariff reductions. The reduced tariffs will gradually be implemented over three years to help these overseas car companies build factories in the United States.
Therefore, from the perspective of automobile, Trump really intends to force overseas enterprises to relocate some manufacturing industries to the United States through tariffs to provide more jobs for the United States. Therefore, enterprises need to measure the cost of tariffs and construction, and also consider whether the Democratic Party will continue to use this tariff system if Trump and the Republican Party step down in 2028.
In addition, tomorrow will be the data for GDP and PCE. The consensus among everyone is that PCE's impact is not significant, and there are different ideas about the impact on GDP. Some partners believe that GDP data is too outdated, and the market already has sufficient expectations, so even poor data has a low impact on the risk market. Another group of partners believe that the market may think that low GDP is conducive to increasing the frequency of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, so the worse the data, the more positive it is.
The second idea is like the unemployment rate in 2024, hoping to increase the unemployment rate in exchange for additional interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Some other small partners believe that the current US stock market is maintained due to the reason of the financial reporting season. After all, four of the sisters will disclose financial reports this week, and financial reports are the reason why they can affect the market in the short term. It is not ruled out that it is the expectation of financial reports that affects the current market. These possibilities exist, and no one can say that it is correct to say that it is wrong. Only when it happens can we know that, after all, only the market results are correct.
So my personal opinion is that in highly uncertain situations, we should not place an order until the results and certainty are available.
Looking back at the data of Bitcoin itself, the sustained price fluctuations have not brought about a significant turnover rate, and investors have remained relatively restrained. From the trading volume data, it can also be seen that as uncertainty increases, the number of investors buying and selling is decreasing.
It's completely different from last week's situation driven by events, as if we have returned to FOMO and experienced a decline in sentiment. This is the situation during the election, where the market is waiting for new positive or negative news to decide.
There is still nothing to say about the support aspect. The on chain support from $93000 to $98000 once again proves that a strong support level is very attractive to investors. It is still the largest concentration of chips in this area. In the short term, there is still some support around $83000, but because too many are short-term investors, it still needs to go through a long period of consolidation.
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