Scott Johnsson
Scott Johnsson|Apr 25, 2025 04:11
Most interesting part of upcoming crypto ETF season is going to be the index products. Broader implications for the space and set the tone for what comes next. This is really the event to be watching. (1) They're first on deck. July 2 is the final deadline for Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund LLC which represents large cap (eligible) assets. BITW (top 10 eligible assets) is next later that month. (2) How did they manage to cut the line in front of all the single asset spot products by months? Cleverly, last year they told Gary to pound sand by combining the applications under an entirely new exchange rule specific to digital assets that bypassed his argument in not acknowledging (eg SOL) applications via commodity trust rule. This means the SEC needs to address the new exchange rule and these index application under the rule, potentially also opening the door to all sorts of new products under this new rule. (3) The index products have a (more) undefined universe of allocations (but currently include SOL, ADA, XRP and others), so the SEC is required to adopt a general rule first vs a case-by-case rule application as they might for single asset spot products. I expect a focus on surveillance sharing agreements w/ eligible spot exchanges, sufficient volume + private regulation. I DO NOT expect the SEC to limit themselves to regulated futures exchange SSAs as they've done with BTC and ETH. It's a brave new world. Note that Peirce and Uyeda have extensive writings about their views on these issues, and they'll likely be looking for a permissible path for large caps at minimum that they can marry with the BTC/ETH approval orders. (4) How they address the security question for each of the non BTC/ETH allocations will draw the most attention. The new exchange rule defines 'digital assets' broadly, but the SEC will still want to delineate securities from the allocable universe. They may decide to default defer to eligible regulated spot and futures exchanges (implicit non-security status) while reserving the right to define any given asset as security in the future (removing them from the eligible allocable universe). A few different options here. Again, past writings are informative. (5) Once the index products are (hopefully) cleared, it should be a simple application of the general rule to the single asset spot products. So we may get a brief lull before a flurry of decisions for the rest of the open applications.
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