
Raoul Pal|Apr 24, 2025 14:00
New Journey Man episode with my dear friend @agurevich23—please enjoy!
00:00 – Welcome to The Journeyman
01:12 – Meet Alex Gurevich
02:08 – Alex’s Macro Framework
04:47 – Five Key Forces Driving Markets
07:00 – Rate Cuts & Central Bank Cycles
08:18 – Fiscal Dominance & Inflation Risks
09:37 – Demographics and Deflation
10:07 – Geopolitics and Trade Shifts
12:32 – The Rise of the Singularity
14:05 – Why Rates Remain Sticky
16:17 – Tariffs and the Bond Market
18:03 – Basel, Regulation & Forced Buying
20:26 – Stocks, Bonds & Mispriced Narratives
22:45 – Why Crises Always End in Liquidity
25:15 – 2022’s Puzzle: Real Rates & Liquidity
27:08 – Will the Fed Cut Soon?
28:37 – Favorite Macro Trades
30:25 – Currency Plays: Yen & Yuan
32:18 – Gold, Silver & Hard Assets
35:16 – Patience in Commodities
36:08 – Bitcoin, Crypto & Long-Term Views
37:00 – Copper & Industrial Demand
38:14 – Bearish on Equities… For Now
41:03 – Crises Create Opportunity
43:01 – The Buy-the-Dip Mindset
44:48 – The AI Singularity is Here
47:11 – Kurzweil Was Right
49:21 – End of the Exponential Age
51:14 – Energy as the True Constraint
55:15 – Can AI Solve Its Energy Crisis?
58:15 – Kardashev Scale & Solar Limits
01:02:37 – What Happens to the Economy?
01:04:34 – UBI and the End of Work
01:06:53 – Energy as the New Macro Constraint
01:07:29 – Why 2030 Could Be a Turning Point
01:10:12 – Can AI Run a Macro Fund?
01:14:29 – A Future Dominated by AGI
01:16:13 – This Changes Everything
01:18:44 – Final Thoughts & Takeaways
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