
加密前线(糖哥)|Apr 21, 2025 09:49
Daily Market Interpretation - BTC 04/21
In the two articles "Strategy" on the 17th and "Prelude and Logic of Potential Price Rise Script" on the 18th, Sugar Brother explained the possibility of a price surge first, based on the repair results of 4H suppression and the support that daily volume can bring; The suppression of the 12H and early composite M top and neck lines, as well as the large period moving average system, suggests that the magnitude of the surge is also limited.
The current surge is in line with the script prediction, but this script is a prediction for the next 2.5-3.5 months, which can only be said to be preliminary. The large-scale suppression above in the short term cannot be ignored. No one can know what will happen in the next few months. In practice, we still need to operate the market gradually based on the existing structure.
From a weekly perspective, the price has been rising along the lower edge of the rising MA30 for three consecutive weeks. This offline upward trend provides us with the simplest feedback from a cost perspective: putting the previously trapped chips in a boiling state that is close to cost but cannot be untied; It is also easy to guide short-term investors to chase higher prices, in order to trade the position timeline of previous chips, killing two birds with one stone.
From this perspective, we can also draw a potential conclusion that when the weekly price briefly crosses MA30, it is easy to trigger a pullback (except for breaking through the bullish candlestick), and it is still necessary to prevent potential downward trends in the 1-3 weeks of the weekly level.
From the 12H to the daily trend, we have repeatedly emphasized the potential support brought by the increased volume of prices on the 7th and 9th at key positions, as well as the upward trend of the main control line. Today, we will not repeat it, but focus on the relationship between the suppression above and the trend.
BTC closed today with a solid bullish candlestick, with a high point close to the main control line of 87857. This range is a normal repair type surge, but the rising trend can easily attract the attention of short-term investors. Therefore, the main force will cooperate with limited secondary surge temptations. If it crosses the part after 87857, it belongs to the market's excess and is close to the suppression range of the moving average and K-line system. In the short term, it is necessary to take profits actively to prevent sudden declines,
The suppression before breaking through is suppression. When it comes to running first, it's not too late to make a second comeback after breaking through. Strictly implement take profit and stop loss, treat it rationally and objectively, and don't start fantasizing about the next few months' sharp rise just because it's up 3% today. Just focus on the existing structure. look in my eyes, Many things in your life were not lost to your own cognition and intelligence, but to unrealistic fantasies that you could not control.
From the trend of 1H to 4H, we suggested last weekend that there is a chance for 1H retracement of MA250. From the potential trend of the next 1-2 days, the current moving average system has repaired the short-term suppression, and the small-scale moving average has begun to have support. The only selling pressure comes from the large-scale trapped market and short-term profit taking market. If there is a slow decline in the small bearish candlestick, you can refer to the lifeline strategy of short trading at the position of MA30 in this level.
In the 15 to 30 minute period, the support rebound brought by MA30 is limited, so we should not do it. We should mainly guard against the potential top separation trend after the level first rises, and focus on preventing local sharp drops after the rise.
Based on the trends of the above levels, in the short term, the main focus is on preventing local sharp drops caused by deviations after the direct rise of small levels. The repair results of the bullish moving average system in the medium and short term provide traders with much lower opportunities. The suppression zone and trapped market above the large level are still present, and both time and space are insufficient to provide a trend upward trend. Do not have too high expectations.
Short term suppression of 89098~91454, second suppression of 93024~95282 (reserve level, unlikely to arrive, no need to play games), short-term support of 85867~85132 (if it is a pullback style, the low point is around 838, then the cost of reverse drawing will be taken out first). There is no need to cancel the mid to long term hanging points in the early stage. BTC
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