Orange Evening Interpretation 4.18 Trump vs Powell, Global Trade Deadlock and Crypto Market Dynamics: New Opportunities in Chaos Trump and Powell completely broke their faces. That is, the day before yesterday, Trump bluntly said that he would not wipe the bottom of tariff policy. Trump changed eight directions one day. Don't expect the harsh words of the Federal Reserve to rescue the market. Last night, Chuanzi finally couldn't help saying that the earlier Powell stepped down, the better. He was dissatisfied with his work. He was playing politics. He was too bad. If he asked Powell to leave, he would have to leave. Especially last night, the European Central Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points for the seventh time in a row, which made Trump even more uneasy. Now the world is discussing the feasibility of Trump's dismissal of Powell. At present, the first candidate is former Federal Reserve Governor Walsh, who has always supported Trump's tariff policy before, saying that the impact of this policy on inflation is one-time and small. At the same time, he is also the son-in-law of the successor of Estee Lauder, the main Republican financier. In short, when this product comes to power, the Federal Reserve will no longer have independence, basically being Trump's lead puppet. US Senator Warren believes that if Powell is fired, the US market will collapse. At present, the probability of Powell being fired during his term of office in the polymarket is only 20%, which means that the position of Federal Reserve Chairman is still not so dynamic. There is no precedent in the history of the United States for the president to dismiss the chairman of the Federal Reserve, and even if it is impeachment, it can only be the chairman's mistake. Now Powell and Trump just disagree, and Powell was appointed by Trump in the first term of office, and then Biden's term of office gave Powell a second term of office. Trump will continue to nominate Powell after taking office, and his term of office will last until May 15, 2026, so Trump can only suffer during this period, which is regarded as digging a big hole for himself. Later, Trump will no longer appoint meritocracy, but cronyism, and loyalty will be the first. With regard to trade negotiations, Trump is still confident that the EU and Japan can finally reach an agreement. But people don't think so. The European Union has expressed its consideration of imposing export restrictions on the United States in the event of a failed trade negotiation, and Japan has also agreed to make almost any progress outside of the next meeting. There is a significant gap between the departure of Japan and the United States, and it is hoped that a consensus can be reached within 90 days. On the Chinese side, the White House did not receive a call from China. It seems that neither side would counsel. The US media said that Trump overestimated the lethality of the tariff policy to China. But what's more interesting is that Trump said that Nvidia Huang Renxun was his good brother. Nvidia would invest 500 billion yuan to build a factory in the United States. The latter foot put pressure on Huang Renxun to choose between the United States and China. As a result, Old Huang did not give Trump any face. He flew to China by special plane the next day. This time, Old Huang not only took off his fur coat, but also made a statement in China. Nvidia will continue to spare no effort to optimize the product system that meets the regulatory requirements and firmly serve the Chinese market. It seems that Lao Chuan's two choice policy is not very effective. Nvidia's departure from China is like breaking a leg, which is very uncomfortable. It seems that none of the bullshit that Trump has boasted before has come true after 100 days of coming to power. Now the old man has no intention of armistice. He says that Trump and Putin are preparing for the next call, and the United States has also put forward the plan of quartering Ukraine. The eastern region of Ukraine belongs to geese, the western region belongs to the European Union, the middle and northern regions belong to the Ukrainian people, and the minerals belong to the United States. If this plan is finally successful, then the world will not engage in economy next, but build nuclear bombs, because the results of the Russia Ukraine war tell us who has the biggest fist, who has the final say. In addition, Israel also released news that it would attack Iran's nuclear facilities in May. The American media said that the government did not support the plan. A new round of negotiations on the US Iran nuclear issue will be held on the 19th. In short, Trump has been in power for so long that the world has become more chaotic. Finally, speaking of the market, the performance of the big pancake is still quite strong. The US stock market fell last night, and the big pancake basically did not move. Shanzhai has also started to rebound slightly. Currently, the market share of the big pancake exceeds 62%, which often means that Shanzhai will rebound. Although the overall market sentiment is currently low, as long as the big pancake can stabilize, Shanzhai will not continue to hit new lows. Moreover, the big pancake ETF ended its outflow last night, with a net inflow of 106 million US dollars, of which BlackRock contributed 8000 million, which is the absolute main force. This indicates that institutional level purchasing power is recovering. In addition, the Federal Reserve Chairman hinted that banks will relax their support for encryption, which is definitely a good news; There is also good news on the Ethereum side. The Patra upgrade is scheduled for May 7th, which mainly increases the staking limit from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH. Although this change will make ETH nodes more concentrated, it will bring several impacts to Ethereum after the upgrade. In addition, this upgrade will increase blob fees and increase ETH demand. This upgrade will bring ETH back to deflation, which can also be seen as market narrative and speculative attraction. It can consolidate L1's rule in the long run, unlike before when traffic was distributed to L2, resulting in insufficient competitiveness on the main network. Therefore, Ethereum in May is still worth looking forward to; Other counterfeit aspects are basically following the trend of the market, while Binance continues to crazily list coins. A few days ago, the kernel wct just finished listing, and then the new launchpool init came again. Alpha is also not idle, continuously listing on the fhe GM dark, Binance Wallet is about to launch Lorenzo's IDO and subscribe for 3 BNB online. The start time is tonight from 17:00 to 19:00. Binance is very interesting. In March, it delisted Aergo spot and contract, and this coin has risen nearly 10x in the past month. Then two days ago, Aergo contract was launched again. I doubt if Binance has changed its personnel. In short, even though the market is so bad, Binance is still unlimited in its coin listing, which is a bit excessive. Taking the momentum of listing to place coins should be better for the market.