I simulated the growth curve of the total size of stablecoins over the next 5 years using an S-curve 👀 one ⃣ What is the S-curve? The S-curve (logistic curve) is a classic model that describes the process of constrained growth, and its mathematical expression is: P(t) = P₀ + (K - P₀) / (1 + e^(-r(t-t₀))) Among them: P (t) is the value at time t P ₀ is the initial value K is the saturation value (upper limit) R is the growth rate parameter T ₀ is the turning point time (the time point with the highest growth rate) The S-curve is widely present in various phenomena such as technology adoption, market penetration, and biological population growth. Compared to simple exponential or linear models, the S-curve takes into account resource limitations and market saturation effects, which is more in line with actual development laws. two ⃣ Why choose the S-curve model to predict the stablecoin market? The stablecoin market has the following characteristics that make it suitable for prediction using the S-curve model: The initial outbreak period has been completed: from the end of 2017 (10005) to April 2025 (227010568116), the market size has grown by more than 22 million times, indicating that it has passed the early slow adoption stage. Change in growth rate: Historical data shows that the annual growth rate has gradually decreased from several thousand times to several times in recent times, which is consistent with the mid-term characteristics of the S-curve. Potential saturation factors exist: --Regulatory restrictions may set upper limits --There are natural boundaries to market demand --Competition among Non US Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) --The growth slows down after covering the main application scenarios Technology and Market Maturity: The stablecoin technology and business model are becoming increasingly mature, transitioning from the innovation phase to the maturity phase. The S-curve development of the following technologies and markets can provide reference for the stablecoin market: 👉 Mobile payment (China): From 2013 to 2020, the growth rate increased from less than 10 trillion yuan to 432 trillion yuan in 7 years, and then slowed down. 👉 Credit card penetration (United States): The 1970s and 1990s experienced a typical S-shaped growth. 👉 Internet adoption rate (global): from 1995 to 2020, it will grow from less than 1% to nearly 60% in 25 years, following a clear S curve. 👉 Smartphone penetration rate: Within 10 years after the release of the iPhone in 2007, major market penetration was achieved, followed by a significant slowdown in growth rate. three ⃣ Comparative analysis of three S-curve prediction schemes 🌟 Conservative plan Saturation level: 1.14 trillion (currently 5 times) Final value (2030): 1.00 trillion Inflection point: July 18, 2026 (516.68B) Approaching saturation point: July 18, 2029 5th year growth rate: 11.22% 🌟 Medium plan Saturation level: 2.27 trillion (currently 10 times) Final value (2030): 1.82 trillion Bending point: July 18, 2025 (500B) Approaching saturation point: July 18, 2029 5th year growth rate: 12.42% 🌟 Radical plan Saturation level: 4.54 trillion (currently 20 times) Final value (2030): 3.25 trillion Bending point: May 18, 2025 (900B) Approaching saturation point: April 18, 2029 5th year growth rate: 14.02% four ⃣ The characteristics and strategic significance of each stage of the S-curve ⌛ Current stage (2025) Location: Currently or about to enter the vicinity of the inflection point Characteristics: Growth rate approaching peak, rapid market expansion Strategic Inspiration: Innovative Enterprises: A Critical Period for Seizing Market Share Conservative institutions: seeking partners for stablecoin infrastructure Regulatory agencies: Establishing a regulatory framework that balances innovation and risk ⌛ Mid term stage (2026-2028) Location: After the inflection point, during the high-speed growth stage Characteristics: The growth rate has started to decline but still maintains a high level, and the market pattern is gradually stabilizing Strategic Inspiration: Industry Participants: Optimize Operational Efficiency, Establish Scale Advantage Technology Provider: Focused on solving scalability and efficiency issues Investors: Pay attention to the market share changes of leading companies ⏳ Long term period (2029-2030) Location: Approaching saturation point, market tends to mature Characteristics: The growth rate has significantly decreased, and the focus of competition has shifted towards efficiency and service quality Strategic Inspiration: Market Participants: Searching for Segmented Markets and Innovative Applications Investors: Focus on cash flow and profitability Regulatory agencies: Improve long-term regulatory mechanisms