🧠 Being confused about big things is truly confused one ️⃣ cause Yesterday, an old man said that there are only 8 cross chain users in zkSync every day, and later an intern from zk said that my Dune data needs to be fixed. So, I just spent time fixing these outdated data. Then, I casually checked the price of ZK, which has dropped by over 80% from 0.26 at the end of last year to 0.0488 today. two ️⃣ debate Then, during breakfast and coffee time, I argued with my girlfriend for three hundred rounds, with one theme: If she had listened to my advice and sold her 1 million ZKs early at the beginning of the year, she would have lost at least $2 million less, which is close to ¥ 1.5 million RMB. Yes, she airdropped as many as one million ZKs, and not a single one was sold until just now when she finally switched to BTC ETH、SOL。 three ️⃣ Confused about major issues What is' Big Confusion '? This is a typical case of being confused about big things. In the most important event judgment: 1. Too little effort put in 2. Too lazy to think 3. Procrastination without making a decision (not making a decision is the worst decision) 4. Making wrong decisions easily Before the ZK airdrop, I had already made up my mind (suffered a big loss) and reached a clear agreement with my girlfriend: ZK opens, regardless of price, sell half. At that time, it was also 'argued' that such a strategy of selling half was better than selling all at the opening or holding on to not selling at all. What was the result? Both of them didn't sell a single ZK until I cleared the ZK at the beginning of this year, and my girlfriend cleared the ZK just ten minutes ago. What is the potential loss of income? More profitable than any other reckless operation. Say it again, this is a typical case of being confused about big things. four ️⃣ Extension Apart from ZK, this one is indeed a bit painful, there are many others similar to it (such as W, which is still unsold to this day) (or ODOS, which fortunately sold early). But the most typical ones, I think, are the following three: 1. The BTC that fell to 20000 in the last bear market has now reached 100000, which is the highest certainty and largest capital capacity beta return in the cryptocurrency circle. How many wise people have identified and seized such profits? If you find the 5-fold return too low, it is recommended to compare the following two points a. Capital capacity b. Mental burden 2. This round of ETH 3. Short term high point judgment of TRUMP and SOL at the beginning of the year The importance of the above three things decreases in order. In other words, the most important thing in the cryptocurrency industry is to judge the low and high points of the Bitcoin price cycle movement. This is the most important source of beta revenue and also the key to stability. Abandoning beta benefits and pursuing the elusive hundredfold alpha is like being confused about big things and smart about small things. five ️⃣ postscript If I were to give the most important three words to someone in the cryptocurrency industry, I would say: 1. Permanent issuance of fiat currency 2. Bitcoin keeps rising 3. All other 'assets' in the cryptocurrency circle are illusory and elusive In short, Bitcoin is the hardest asset on the surface.