
飞凡|Apr 17, 2025 15:52
The operation of (micro) strategy in the first quarter can be considered a tragedy:
Number of bitcoins purchased in the first quarter: 80715
Total cost: 7.66 billion US dollars
Average price: $94922 per Bitcoin
Bitcoin price on file submission date: approximately $76400
The unrealized losses of Bitcoin held in the first quarter exceeded $5.9 billion
Fortunately, the strategy increased its holdings of 3459 BTC at an average price of $82631 between April 7th and 13th, but this is only a small part of the risk.
The real risk to the market is the strategic issuance of STRF - a new perpetual preferred stock with an annual cash dividend of 10%
You should know that there is a core issue with micro strategies:
Use non cash generating assets (Bitcoin) to repay fixed, cash paying debts (bond interest, preferred stock dividends). The cash flow of its core software business is insufficient to cover these growing obligations, especially after issuing high interest (10%) STRF preferred shares.
This mismatch makes the company exceptionally vulnerable when the Bitcoin price falls or is sideways, as well as when liquidity is tight.
This is considered a red flag by some traditional institutions for a simple reason: in the current macroeconomic environment, providing a fixed cash dividend of 10% typically means financing difficulties or extremely high risk premiums for a non-financial or high growth startup.
This suggests that the market may consider investing in the company to be risky and require extremely high returns to compensate, which further exacerbates its cash flow pressure.
Micro Strategy is making a big bet that if the price of Bitcoin rises significantly in the coming years and the (micro) strategy company can successfully manage its debt, then Michael Sellers will be hailed as a "strategic genius".
But if the Bitcoin market enters a long-term bear market or experiences a serious liquidity crisis, this strategy could lead to catastrophic consequences, with destructive power far exceeding all past black swan events.
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