TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Apr 17, 2025 03:52
I woke up early and posted a message, but then went back to sleep. When I got serious, I saw that everyone had a strong reaction to this message. It must be because I acted as a mouthpiece for many people, triggering the emotional algorithm and resulting in high traffic. Then we have to think more about it from the perspective of game theory. At present, cutting interest rates as soon as possible in May and June is actually the idea of most people, including Trump. Because the economy is under extreme pressure, the impact on US stocks and bonds was explained in detail in yesterday afternoon's lengthy article. Even the Federal Reserve itself wants to cut interest rates, after all, it's not easy to be chased and scolded every day. If the economy were to collapse completely, it would be extremely negative for both Mr. Bao and the Federal Reserve as an institution. Now, the best decision for Master Bao is to keep a tough stance and never give in to the market, while observing Trump's demon like policy, 1. If Trump messes up and collapses the market, then he will just go down the slope and become a white knight 2. Trump gave in on the tariff issue, and the Federal Reserve could also get a decent reason, saying that because Trump cooperated, all the data were pretty good, and interest rates could be cut. The negative CPI and PPI last week were all suspected of this If interest rates are cut too early, it will be seen as being influenced by political pressure and weakening the effectiveness of future policy tools. If we carry on stubbornly without surrendering, we will witness the outbreak of the US debt crisis, where everything will be destroyed, and the US will shut down, restart debt restructuring, and establish a new USB Master Bao is also difficult
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