lynk
lynk|Apr 16, 2025 22:41
Many people hesitating about meme coins reaching billions, or even the 100B dream target. 1) People have forgotten than majority of retail, even with good degrees and high IQ, think that a 0.00001 token is cheaper than other that is 0.10. They don't understand market cap. 2) Market cap isn't real. Liquidity is. To the extreme, you could create a coin, hold all the supply, have 10 in liquidity, and say it's worth 1T if you want. A token worth 100B doesn't mean there's 100B of real capital. There might only be 50M of liquidity, out of which only 25M is exit liquidity in ETH/SOL. 100B is just paper money, it doesn't exit, it's all a fugazzi. That means that 10M in net buying pressure, which isn't much, can move a market cap by 20B, for example. 3) Tokens are momentum-based assets, and memes take it to the extreme. You can see that there is something ranging for months and then pump 100x in a month. Fair valuations don't exist and no one can really put a ceiling especially in peak mania. People just fomo and as it goes higher, reflexivity kicks in: regardless of price and valuations, the 100x dream will never die. People wonder how something keeps going up. It's just a function of the aforementioned points, but they don't know, and that makes them believe that it is something bigger than them, bigger than the market, and everyone chases. Also, contrary to rationality, the higher the price goes, the more comfy it makes you feel. The reality is that the R:R gets worse and worse, but only good traders apply that. Discussions about 100B targets is extreme top market behavior. I don't think there's enough liquidity in the market nor the irrationality to materialize. Instead, we are going to keep the 1B targets for some time. But I do believe that at some point in the next months, or maybe years, when everything aligns, we'll see some stupid valuations on memes. But it won't be due to a new paradigm, it will just be a function of liquidity, new market entrants with low IQ, and extreme momentum and reflexivity, fueled by greed, jealousy, and social media. It's all a fugazzi. Make the most out of it and don't get distracted.
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