
OKG | 歐科雲鏈|Apr 16, 2025 02:51
🚨 Budget-Neutral BTC Buying — How the U.S. Could Reprice Bitcoin Without Expanding Its Deficit
White House advisor @BoHines has revealed that the government is exploring “budget-neutral” strategies to establish a national BTC reserve.
OKG Research outlines 5 feasible pathways, estimates their capital deployment potential, and projects how these flows could structurally impact Bitcoin’s market value 👇👇
1️⃣ Tariff Reallocation (Bo Hines): 7B ~ 70B
2️⃣ Gold Certificate Revaluation (Bo Hines): 500B
3️⃣ Tokenization of State Assets (theoretical): 12.5B ~ 50B
4️⃣ Unspent Budget Recovery (theoretical): 5.6B ~ 34B
5️⃣ Pension Allocation Guidance (theoretical): 220B+
📌 Total Potential Budget-Neutral BTC Buying Power: 764B ~ 874B+
📊 Market Multiplier Effect|Buying ≠ Market Cap
In low-float, fixed-supply assets like BTC, each 1 of net inflow may drive 2x–5x growth in market capitalization, due to price slippage and valuation repricing.
Applying a 2x–5x multiplier to 764B–874B inflows projects total market capitalization rising to 3.2T ~ 6.0T, from a current base of approximately 1.65T.
🧮 Effective active BTC supply ≈ 15.2M coins, excluding Satoshi-era addresses, lost coins, and dormant long-term holdings.
207,237 ~ 398,026
✅ OKG Research concludes:
Budget neutrality is not just a fiscal tactic — it’s a structural force that reshapes pricing expectations and reserve logic.
These capital flows won’t “buy out” Bitcoin, but they could re-anchor the market’s consensus valuation.
In this shift, BTC is becoming a fiscal reference asset for sovereign balance sheets.
Assumptions:
1. U.S. tariff revenue is expected to reach ~700B in 2025 (WSJ). Assuming 1%–10% is redirected toward BTC accumulation.
2. U.S. Treasury’s gold holdings are still recorded at 42.22/oz. At ~3,200 market price, a 10% release of revalued assets (5T) implies 500B in potential BTC-buying liquidity.
3. With 2.5T in infrastructure value (DOT), tokenizing 0.5%–2% of future toll/cash flows — as seen in PPP precedents — could unlock this range of capital.
4. CBO reported 1.129T in unspent budget in 2020. Assuming 10% (~113B) is recoverable, and 5%–30% allocated to BTC strategic reserves.
5. U.S. pension assets total ~44.1T (ICI 2025). A 0.5% policy-guided allocation to BTC could yield 220B+ in inflow potential.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Macro #BitcoinETF #DigitalGold #FiscalPolicy #BudgetNeutral #ReserveAssets #USDebt #CryptoResearch #Tokenization #Gold #OKGResearch #Tariffs
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