陈剑Jason 🐡
陈剑Jason 🐡|Apr 11, 2025 22:20
This time, Ethereum rebounded 10% from its low point, while Sol rebounded 20%. I bought Sol at the bottom in 1998, but Ethereum is still in a short position. On the one hand, I am physiologically disgusted with ETH, and on the other hand, I personally believe that if there is a bull market in the next six months, ETH will still not be able to outperform Sol. First of all, the strength of the rebound of both has already explained everything. ETH is weak and powerless, and even ancient whales continue to sell. Sol's strong rebound is twice the value of ETH. Secondly, I still haven't seen any signs of improvement in the fundamentals of ETH going forward. Let me tell you a terrifying thing. The new chairman of the SEC has taken office this week, so there is a high probability that the ETF pledge will be approved in May. Would you say that this is not good news for Ethereum? That's right, don't forget, the next one to be approved through ETF is probably Sol. So what will be the situation then? There will be three ETFs simultaneously: BTC, ETH, and Sol. BTC is beyond doubt and no one can shake it, while ETH and Sol will compete for the remaining limited funds that will be diverted. Please replace your mind with that of a US stock investor. How many people do you think would buy ETH and switch positions after Sol's ETF is approved? If ETFs are renewing the life of Ethereum in this round, it is roughly estimated that 30% or even 50% of the current Ethereum price may be supported by ETFs? When Sol's ETF is approved, it will take away a lot of Ethereum's poor life Sol is likely to suck ETH, after all, there are no staunch E-guard scholars brainwashed by Vitalik's concepts of infinite gardens, decentralization, privacy and security, communism, and so on in the US stock market. The US stock market is full of mature investors who have milk and milk, and whoever rises will be the most powerful. So if there were BTC ETF, ETH ETF, and Sol ETF in May at the same time, what would it be like? Of course, Sol will also experience the same situation as BTC and ETH, where early ETF chips crash. You may ask if ETH's ETF has an additional card, which is staking. It's really cute. If Sol's ETF is approved, it can also be staked. So what other cards do ETH have in hand? I am not Fud Ethereum or praising Sol, I am simply analyzing this matter rationally from the perspective of a vulgar speculator making money. Will Ethereum continue to rise? Definitely, it's just that I personally don't think it's rising as much as Sol. I think the script for Ethereum is highly likely to reach a maximum of 3000 to 3500 after the ETF pledge is approved. I have no expectation of returning to 4000 or even standing firm at the high before the breakthrough. The two double tops of Ethereum in this round were both 4000 and were immediately hit, so the difficulty of breaking through 4000 for the third time is extremely high, unless it is a huge amount of funds and an improvement in structural fundamentals, completely pulling everyone up and solving the problem.
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