Nick Timiraos
Nick Timiraos|Apr 10, 2025 20:02
Despite a decent auction, the 30-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps to 4.849% on Thursday. Yields are up every day this week by a cumulative 0.458 percentage point, the largest four-day yield gain since March 18, 2020. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened nearly 1.6% on the day. From Evercore ISI: "Yields higher, currency lower is common in EM. We saw this in the UK during the Truss debacle. But it is highly abnormal for the US: there are only four other episodes in the last 30 years in which the dollar depreciated more than 1.5% with the 30 year yield up more than 10bp." "This is not about stagflation: inflation break-evens have fallen." "It reflects evaporating US growth exceptionalism and the reduced attraction at the margin of dollar assets for reserve purposes amid erratic US decision-making..."
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