Orange Evening Interpretation 4.9 The equivalent tariffs have officially come into effect, and the next step is various negotiations. We have all been timid this afternoon and released a mutually beneficial white paper. It can be foreseen that all countries in the country will be wiped out by the United States in the future. Chuanzi's strategy should be to take one step at a time, first throw a nuclear bomb to see the effect. If they all die, we will restart the game. If they don't die, we can still force Powell to cut interest rates! At noon today, the equivalent tariffs between the US and China officially came into effect, and the market did not experience a downturn as a result. This was because Kawako never relaxed his stance. Last night, the US Trade Representative personally issued a statement saying that the President would not accept the situation where Wall Street dominates the economy, and there were no exceptions or exemptions to tariffs, nor was there a negotiation timetable. The meaning of these few sentences is already very clear. The equivalent tariffs on April 9th cannot be pulled back by ten cows. If countries want to continue doing business with the United States, they should take the initiative to come and lick it. For example, South Korea first came to talk last night, and Kawako said the talks were good. The implication is that South Korea will give up again, including the newly built natural gas pipeline in Alaska and the purchase agreement. This is similar to the previous requirement for the European Union to purchase $350 billion in energy to obtain tariff reductions. Next, East Asian and Southeast Asian countries such as Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines should also sign natural gas purchase agreements with the United States; In contrast, there are basically no negotiations between the United States and China. Last night, Chuanzi personally signed an executive order, and today the 104% tariff stick against China has already been hit. Chuanzi is very arrogant, saying that if China wants to negotiate, he will call proactively. In short, the situation between China and the United States is quite ugly. However, fortunately, there are signs of timidity on our side. After the closing of the afternoon session, the State Council Information Office released a white paper entitled "China's Position on Several Issues Concerning China US Economic and Trade Relations", which stated that China US trade is mutually beneficial and win-win, clarified the facts of China US economic and trade relations, and clarified China's policy stance on related issues. This is generally interpreted by the market as cowardly and submissive, otherwise it would be like the 34% counterattack against the United States before. Just like tariffs, a direct counterattack of 104% is enough. This news still has a positive effect on the market, This indicates that there is still room for negotiation between China and the United States, and the Big Dipper has also responded, rising by about 1000 points. If there is news of negotiations between China and the United States in the next few days tonight, it should be considered positive for the market. In addition to the market, let's start with the US stock market. Last night's opening trend was actually quite good. But as Trump made it clear that tariffs would not be loosened, no country could negotiate successfully before the implementation of the tariff parity on April 9, and the market ended in a decline. The most frightening thing for the market was that the 10-year US debt fell last night, the yield rose to 4.5%, and the long short interest margin soared. Because US debt is generally regarded as a safe haven asset, this phenomenon of US stock falling while US debt falling is rare. Usually, it is because the liquidity crisis in the market has led to the emergence of a cash dominated state in the market. The last time this situation occurred was in December 2020. We should never forget how the market went. The US stock market fell from 7700 to 3800, which directly cut the price, causing the biggest tragedy in the history of the currency circle, So last night, this phenomenon really startled everyone. At 312, the Federal Reserve held an emergency meeting and cut interest rates by 50 basis points to put out the fire. This time, Powell was also very calm and didn't seem to have two or three waves of decline. He won't make a move, and in the end, we can only rely on our little leeks to silently withstand the storm. So don't touch the contract at this time. The market can come out in eight directions a day, and if you're unlucky, it will be a double kill of long and short. Since last night, major institutions have raised their expectations for a recession by a significant margin. JPMorgan Chase has determined that the probability of a recession in the United States has reached 80%, up from 60% a few days ago. Former US Treasury Secretary Summers said that tariffs may cause a recession in the United States, and the number of unemployed people may increase by 2 million. The US stock market is expected to plummet, and B-level students are aware of this. Goldman Sachs is shouting 'bear' loudly, saying that the bear market in the US stock market cycle will last for two years, usually taking five years to rebound to the starting point. The CEO of BlackRock directly confronted the issue, stating that the United States may have already fallen into recession, and that Chuanzi's tariff policy will cause inflation to soar, hinder the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates, and may even raise interest rates. Nick, the mouthpiece of the Federal Reserve, also admitted that Powell is now in the most difficult situation since taking office, with only one side to consider. Of course, CME's current forecast for interest rate cuts is still very optimistic. The probability of a rate cut in May yesterday has dropped to over 30%, and it rebounded to 53% today. It seems that the market is still betting on a rate cut starting in May. CME's more optimistic forecast is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a total of 100-125 basis points, or 4-5 times, by the end of the year. If this can be achieved, once the tariff panic ends, the currency market is likely to emerge from the rate cut bull market in the second half of the year.