
看不懂的sol|Apr 08, 2025 06:43
What should we do next?
Under emotional impact, analyzing nothing is useless.
I'm so confused and cursing my mother, I want to know what to do,
Is it selling? Can we copy the bottom?
In fact, it is easy to make judgment mistakes when emotional, so the first thing to do is to calm yourself down.
Let's briefly talk about some of our own ideas 👇👇
1. Yesterday, the market experienced a significant drop in volume, but in any case, this volume has finally emerged. In fact, I have been wanting to see the US stock market circuit breaker for the past few days, but unfortunately it was not possible. We had hoped to see demand rebound in the face of supply contraction, but the escalation of the tariff war changed this process, and the market chose to increase volume downwards. Anyway, having quantity is better than not having quantity, and a sharp decline is better than a bearish one. Because a sharp decline is unsustainable, a bearish one is a long and agonizing experience. We can also flip through the trend chart ourselves. From the perspective of the band, basically all sharp drops have a rapid rebound and an upward segment, just like how acceleration can easily form a sharp peak, panic can easily form a sharp bottom. (Short term thinking)
2. But the market is currently in a state of extreme emotional shock, and in this situation, people always involuntarily amplify the impact, always thinking about the most pessimistic outcome. For example, now many people are expecting the cryptocurrency circle to decouple from the US stock market or even engage in hot wars. In an era of information overload, it is easy to get involved.
3. Panic has emerged, and the market has already recorded negative emotions and news. Next, it depends on the development of the event. If the event develops in a positive direction, such as unfinished tariffs (exemptions, extensions, or negotiations), Fed interest rate cuts, etc., because the market has already taken into account the worst-case scenario, then there is a high probability of a rebound. If we continue to upgrade and add tariffs, because we have already exceeded the threshold, adding more would be meaningless. After this round of rapid adjustments, it will be difficult to lose a lot of money here (except for those with substantial impact).
4. The tariff war is a lose lose outcome that has a huge impact on both sides. The US stock market has already stopped falling last night. In short, after releasing the panic, from the perspective of the wave band, this is clearly a very worthwhile place to play. Of course, don't look at the long term. No one knows what will happen in the long term. The world is changing too fast now, and the reason why people are pessimistic is because they emotionally anticipate the long-term effects, such as decoupling and hot wars. Long term changes are too significant and there are too many factors that no one can fully predict, especially for long-term investment players. As the saying goes, as long as you still believe that BTC can break new highs, the probability of making money is actually increasing. (Long term thinking)
5. Maintain a stable mindset. No matter what happens, don't get emotional. I also know that I have lost money and everyone is in a bad mood, but this is all part of the transaction. In recent years, the world has changed too quickly, and black swans often appear, almost every year. It's unrealistic to want to make money and not have black swans present every time. To be honest, it's hard to avoid this kind of bearish sentiment, as it's all part of the trading process. At this point, leverage is the most feared. As long as it doesn't cause you to die in such extreme emotions, you will come back after the panic is over.
6. Hong Kong stock guru Cao Renchao once said a sentence, which I would like to give to everyone: Most successful investment strategies make good investment decisions in adverse market conditions, as the saying goes, 'Good investment is good in bad market conditions'.
What Cao Renchao said is actually a typical black swan mentality. Good market conditions and a good economy will not give you excessive opportunities to make money. Only black swans can bring down stock/coin prices. By making good use of black swans, you can succeed.
Many people will never fully understand this in their lifetime. Many times, the situation is not good, but if everything had improved, everyone could have seen that the coin price had already skyrocketed, right? Will I still give you extra opportunities?
Only black swans and bad market conditions can bring you sky high wealth, mediocre opportunities in daily life, and only mediocre returns.
I don't want to say anything else, it's all part of the transaction. Reject noise, choose high-quality targets, plan funds well,
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