
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Apr 03, 2025 23:33
I believe folks are far too eager to see Trump force a massive Fed easing. Trump may want that but the Fed's reaction function is complicated by this environment and they're unlikely to blast a stimmy cannon without the economy feeling significant hardship. The process of cutting rates to any sort of QE-esque level would take massive pain and multiple FOMC meetings worth of cuts over months. A more moderate easing would do little, and if unleashed too early may just spike bond yields counter actively. Central bankers in recent years have said publicly more than once that QE is not their preferred recovery tool because it doesn't drive growth and it exacerbates inequality. I think people are failing to fully appreciate the cross currents of this moment. It feels like H2 2022 when there were endless predictions of the money printer coming back on despite 8% CPI. This is a hornets nest.
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