Sharing a new approach to macro indicators, which is to subtract the difference between FOMC officials' expectations for year-end and next year's interest rates from the expectations of the interest rate futures market. When this difference shows a significant increase (1.5 STDV or more), it means that the market strongly believes that the FED underestimates risks such as inflation/economic growth/financial conditions, and should pay attention to subsequent downside risks. From the several time points circled in the graph (such as early 2018, early 2020, early 2022, late 2024, etc.), it can be seen that Bitcoin often corresponds to a significant decline or fluctuating weakening trend shortly after.