Powell's speech (downplaying risks+strengthening confidence), but its success heavily relies on the coordination of future economic data. The Federal Reserve achieves multiple objectives without actual interest rate cuts through a combination of expectation management tools (dot matrix, economic forecasts) and marginal policy adjustments (contraction rhythm): ​ 🔸 Restrain market overheating: avoid pushing up asset foam due to excessive optimism; ​ 🔸 Maintain policy credibility: stick to inflation targets even when economic data deteriorates; ​ 🔸 Reserve policy space: reserve operational flexibility for possible future recessions or inflation fluctuations Market variables of future concern 🔸 Data validation window: closely observe whether Q2 GDP, employment, and core PCE match the Federal Reserve's "temporary inflation" assumption 🔸 Political interference: The actual impact of Trump's tariff policy may exceed expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to reassess the inflation path 🔸 Market expectation resilience: The current market is still betting on a rate cut starting in June (with a probability of 75%). If the Federal Reserve does not take action for a long time, there will be new adjustments