Bitcoin is experiencing high-level fluctuations with a bearish bias, and 78,300 has become a key short-term resistance.

Last week we mentioned that although the short-term trend of Bitcoin has shown some signs of weakness, the market has never truly broken below the high fluctuation range of 75,500—81,500.

Therefore, from the current perspective, the market still has not completed its direction choice.

After a rapid rise earlier, the price did not continue to break above 81,500, nor did it break below 75,500. Although there was a sudden upward pull last night, it fell back again afterward, and the previous rise did not form an effective breakout.

Thus, the most accurate definition at present is:

High-level wide fluctuations, but the center of gravity of the fluctuations has begun to move downward.

1. Short-term: The rebound has not stabilized; 78,300—78,400 is a key resistance

First, let's look at the hourly chart.

Around 7 AM today, the price briefly dropped to about 76,900 and then quickly recovered, indicating that there is still some support below.

However, the problem is that after the sharp drop, although there was a rebound, the price is still within the entity range of the earlier large bearish candle.

So the first issue that the short-term rebound needs to solve is to regain 77,900 and further break through the 78,200—78,400 area.

If it can stabilize here, there will be a chance to continue upward testing.

But if the rebound fails to break through 78,300—78,400, the market is likely to test around 76,800 again.

Therefore, going long at this stage is not impossible, but one must not blindly chase in the middle of the range.

Around 77,500 is an important short-term support, and 78,300—78,400 is an important short-term resistance.

Whichever side breaks first will clarify the short-term direction.

2. 4-hour: Failed to push higher, clear bearish signals have appeared

The 4-hour structure is currently worth paying attention to.

Last night the price suddenly surged upwards, and then reached another peak in the early hours, but ultimately did not stabilize.

Then, around 4 AM today, a large bearish candle directly engulfed the rising space of the previous two candles.

From the candlestick structure, this has formed a relatively obvious bearish engulfing pattern.

Of course, the bulls have not completely lost ground.

Because the area around 77,400—77,500 is still holding.

So now the real observation needed on the 4-hour chart is:

Can it regain 78,300—78,400 from above, and can it hold 76,700—77,500 from below.

Before these two positions are effectively broken, the market remains in a range fluctuation.

However, from the current technical structure, the center of gravity of the fluctuations has clearly moved towards the lower half.

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3. Daily: Digestion after a rise gradually becoming high-range fluctuations

Starting from August 19, Bitcoin quickly rose from a low point to around 79,500 over a few days.

This was a very strong rise over the past two months.

However, after the rise, the market did not continue to break above 81,500 but continued to consolidate around 79,500.

At first, this kind of movement can be understood as normal digestion after an increase.

But as time went on, the price has consistently failed to break upwards, while continuously gaining support around 76,800, the market structure began to change.

It has gradually shifted from:

High-level consolidation during the rise

to:

High-level range fluctuations.

Additionally, yesterday’s daily bearish candle engulfed the previous day's bullish candle and closed in the lower half of the entire fluctuation range.

This indicates that the short-term price center is moving downward.

Therefore, a very important point moving forward is to observe whether the price can return above 78,200.

If today it cannot stabilize above 78,200, then current long positions must be more cautious.

4. Weekly: Previous high pressure combined with top formations, bulls cannot be blindly optimistic

The weekly level remains strong at present.

However, the stronger the cycle, the more one must be cautious of high-level risks.

This rise peaked close to 79,500, with further pressures from 81,500 and the previous high.

At the same time, the weekly chart shows a high-level pattern resembling a evening star.

Therefore, the weekly chart needs to pay attention to two questions simultaneously:

First, can the previous high pressure be broken?

Second, will the high-level pattern evolve further into a top structure?

If prices cannot break upward again this week, then the bulls must start to guard against a high-level top formation.

However, it cannot yet be directly defined as a top.

Because the long-term trend has not been truly damaged.

As long as 76,800—76,500 can be held, or even further hold 75,500, then the bulls still have a chance to rise again.

On the other hand, if 75,500 is effectively broken below, the entire structure will clearly weaken.

5. Open positions: No obvious new positions during the rise

Let's look at the trading volume and open positions.

When the price surged last night, there was indeed buying volume, but it wasn't particularly large.

More importantly, as the price rose, the total open positions actually decreased.

In other words, it is a typical case of:

Price increases but positions decrease.

This means that this round of rising has not been accompanied by a significant influx of new leveraged positions.

Then the price fell back, and open positions continued to decline.

Therefore, from the position structure, it looks more like some leveraged positions exiting and deleveraging rather than a large number of new positions entering and pushing the market higher.

This is also why I am not particularly optimistic about directly chasing longs right now.

The price surged without stabilizing, and open positions did not expand significantly, raising doubts about the sustainability of this rise.

6. Moving averages and Bollinger Bands: Price is in a pinched position

From the perspective of the moving average system, the short-term moving averages are still forming pressure above the price, while the 20-day, 60-day, and other medium-term moving averages are far below.

This results in the price currently being in a relatively large empty area.

There is pressure from the short-term moving averages above, while there are no very close medium-term moving averages to provide support below.

Once the short-term support is breached, there may be considerable downward release of space in the market.

The same goes for the Bollinger Bands.

The hourly chart has been running below the middle Bollinger Band, currently located around 78,300—78,400.

The 4-hour middle Bollinger Band is also around 78,300, while the lower band is close to 76,700.

So looking at the short term:

78,300—78,400 is resistance, and around 76,700 is support.

The 4-hour volatility is shrinking, indicating that the market is waiting for the next direction choice.

7. MACD and strength indicators: Small cycles have turned weak, but large cycles have not been truly damaged

In the MACD, the hourly chart has already produced a death cross, indicating clear short-term weakness.

The 4-hour chart is also in a death cross state, but the volume bars are rapidly shortening.

It is worth noting that the 4-hour MACD has not truly regained strength for a long time.

This means that the previous few spikes did not receive full confirmation from the 4-hour momentum.

The daily MACD has also shown a continuous reduction in momentum.

However, the weekly MACD is still in an expanding state.

So the signals MACD gives at present are very clear:

The hourly and 4-hour charts indicate weakness; daily momentum is weakening; the overall trend on the weekly chart has not been broken yet.

This is why we cannot simply say "a peak has been reached," nor can we blindly chase longs just because the large cycle is strong.

8. The two most important positions today

Considering the raw candlesticks, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, VWAP, MACD, and position structure, the market is still in a high-level fluctuation.

However, compared to before, there has clearly been:

Weakness in the short cycle, downward movement of the fluctuation center of gravity, and increased pressure from above.

So the two most important positions today are:

First, 78,300—78,400.

If the price can rebound and stabilize here again, then there will be a chance for short-term testing upwards toward 79,000 or even higher.

But if it rebounds to this level and is pressed down again, it is highly probable the market will continue to test downward around 76,800.

Second, 76,800—76,500.

This is currently a very important defensive area for bulls.

If it can continue to gain support here, then the high-level fluctuation structure still holds.

However, if 76,800 and 76,500 are continuously lost, and even finally break below 75,500, the market can no longer simply be understood as ordinary fluctuations and must start to guard against more apparent downward movement.

Final summary

So today my overall judgment is very clear:

The technical analysis indicates a bearish bias in fluctuations, with a downward price center, but the large cycle bull structure has not been destroyed for now.

Therefore, what is most taboo now is to chase positions.

Bulls can try, but must manage their stop-loss; bears also cannot blindly chase shorts just because of short-term weakness.

The most important thing in trading is never to guess correctly every single time, but to understand why you entered the market, where you exited for a loss, and where you took profit.

Control risk, wait for direction choice.

What the market really needs to address right now is:

To break upwards through 78,300—78,400, or to break down through 76,800.

Until these two positions are effectively broken, continue to treat this as a high-level fluctuation range.

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