Today’s market, to be honest, is a bit bloody. The conflict between the US and Iran suddenly escalated, directly dousing the crypto market with cold water, with BTC sliding from above 79000 down to 77626. What’s even more unsettling is that Wintermute deposited 5100 BTC to Binance within two days, worth 400 million dollars; such large transfers often indicate potential selling pressure. On one side, geopolitical risks are heating up, while on the other, whales are queuing at the exchange’s door. This combination indeed makes it a bit difficult for bulls in the short term.

As of 12:10 on August 31, BTC is quoted at 77626 USDT, with a 24-hour drop of 0.81%. The fear and greed index is still at 62, indicating that market sentiment remains greedy, but this number often lags during declines, and the real panic may not have arrived yet.

First, let’s look at the larger cycle. The daily MACD bars are still positive at 248.18, with DIF above DEA, indicating that the bullish structure has not been damaged. However, RSI has already reached 79.04, which is in the overbought zone, and profit-taking from the previous highs may emerge at any time. MA5 is at 78326, MA10 is at 78299, and the price has fallen below these two short-term moving averages. The daily support level now relies on MA30 at 69716, but this level is too far for short-term significance.

At the 4-hour level, there’s a clear weakening. The MACD bars are negative at -91.21, with both DIF and DEA below the zero axis, and bear momentum is still being released. RSI has pulled back to 46.74, neutral but slightly weak. MA5 and MA10 are both near 78150, and the price has dropped below these lines, with the 4-hour rebound pressure levels between 78150 and 78200.

The 1-hour level is currently the most crucial battleground. EMA55 is at 78352, and the current price is at 77626, which has clearly fallen below this bull-bear dividing line. Although MACD bars show -143.04, pay attention: DIF is at -164.12, and DEA is at -21.08, indicating that the bars in the negative area continue to expand, signifying that downward momentum has not exhausted. RSI has reached 33.39, close to oversold, but being oversold does not mean a rebound is imminent; in a weak trend, RSI can remain dulled at low levels for a long time.

At the 15-minute level, there are signs of stabilization. The MACD bars have turned positive at 26.24, and DIF is approaching DEA, indicating a short-term need for repair. However, MA5 and MA10 are both around 77720, and MA30 is at 78004, with the price still below all moving averages. This rebound cannot be defined as a reversal, only as an oversold repair.

Let’s verify with the Qinglan TPV system. At the 1-hour level, in the last 8 closing prices, there have only been 2 instances above EMA55, with one crossing. The price is 0.93% away from EMA55, not meeting the oscillation threshold, indicating it is currently in a one-sided trend. The direction is very clear: bearish trend. Regarding shorting conditions, the price has closed below EMA55 for two consecutive 1-hour candles, fulfilling the first condition. In terms of pattern, there’s a long upper shadow at the 4-hour level, and the 1-hour level has repeatedly faced resistance around 78000, meeting the conditions for pressure resistance. In terms of momentum, although the MACD bars at the 1-hour level are still expanding in absolute value, the 4-hour MACD bars have shortened from -105 to -91, indicating that downward momentum is marginally weakening, but there’s no clear exhaustion signal yet. Therefore, the TPV system concludes: the bearish trend is established, but the chasing short is not a good position; waiting for a rebound to key resistance levels is advisable before considering.

On-chain data shows BTC market dominance at 59.67%, still high, indicating that funds are still seeking refuge in BTC, with no large-scale movement into altcoins. However, the actions of whales are worth noting, as Wintermute deposited 5100 BTC into Binance in two days, and an ETH whale also transferred 43800 ETH to exchanges in 24 hours, valued at 108 million dollars. Such concentrated movements to exchanges typically prepare for selling. The probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 57%, and the yield on Japan's 10-year bonds has soared to 2.95%, a 28-year high, indicating an unfavorable environment for risk assets. This week, tokens like ENA, SUI, and EIGEN will also unlock over 20 million dollars, adding supply-side pressure.

Keep an eye on the key defense and offense levels. The first resistance level above is at 78000, which is short-term resistance at the 1-hour level, and also where MA30 is located. The second resistance level is at 78350, near EMA55; if this level can be reclaimed, the bearish logic needs to be reassessed. The first support below is at 77000, a psychological barrier and also the lower edge of a previous dense trading area. The second support is at 76000; if 77000 cannot hold, 76000 is the last line of defense for bulls.

In terms of trading strategy, my advice is very clear. Direction: short-term bias bearish, but do not chase shorts. Entry condition: if the price rebounds to the range of 78000 to 78350, simultaneously if a long upper shadow or peak formation appears at the 1-hour level, consider lightly shorting. Set stop-loss at 78600, which is 250 points above EMA55. The first target is 77000, and the second is 76000. If the price directly breaks below 77000, do not chase; wait for a pullback and confirmation before reconsidering. Conversely, if the price shows a volume increase and stops falling near 77000, such as with a long lower shadow along with the MACD bars shortening, then a short-term rebound can be attempted, targeting 78000, with a stop-loss set at 76700. But to be honest, until the US-Iran conflict clarifies, I prefer to watch more and act less, keeping my position control within 30%.

Risk warning in one sentence: geopolitical events are unpredictable, and whale movements may trigger flash crashes; any trading must be accompanied by a stop-loss, and do not hold positions.

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