Goldman Sachs raised the target price for Coinbase to $196. Are analysts chasing after the rally?

Written by: Boaz Sobrado, Forbes

Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Goldman Sachs raised the target price for Coinbase from $173 to $196. By the time the news broke, the stock had already risen for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 28%.

For the trading desk, this was not a research report that indicates a "sudden improvement in fundamentals," but rather an acknowledgment of the price increase that had already occurred. Coinbase closed on Tuesday at $187.16, up 4.3%. By Wednesday mid-session, the stock price returned to $182.43, leaving approximately 7.4% to reach the $196 target set by Goldman Sachs. Following the same logic, Goldman analyst James Yaro maintained the "Buy" rating for Robinhood with a target price of $124; Robinhood was trading at $109.92 at the time, which was 12.8% below the target price.

This adjustment didn't come quietly. Bitcoin hit $80,698 during Tuesday's trading, marking the first time it had crossed the $80,000 mark since mid-May. By Wednesday, it retreated to around $77,900 but was still up 19.9% for the week. Cryptocurrency stocks followed Bitcoin closely, prompting Goldman to raise the target price further. The market immediately split into two camps: one group felt that Wall Street was beginning to take crypto equities pricing seriously, while the other believed analysts were merely adjusting numbers in line with the candlestick patterns.

Target prices follow stock prices, an old problem

"The problem often lies with analysts simply adjusting target prices to follow the stock price," said financial content creator Charan Dangeti. His observation is straightforward: when stocks drop, target prices are cut; when stocks rise, target prices are raised. He cited Citigroup’s downgrade of Micron as an example—when the stock price dropped by 10%, the target price followed suit; and when the market turned, the target was raised again.

"That is the issue with these target prices. I think there’s bias, and I don't believe this is the most honest approach," Dangeti said. He is a paid creator partner for the simulated trading app GameStock.

He didn’t just single out Coinbase. He also mentioned another figure he didn't believe in: "UBS James also said that SpaceX is worth $800." The implication is clear—target prices written on walls may look beautiful but do not equate to institutions actually buying at those numbers.

The current position of Coinbase also leaves room for such skepticism. Its stock price is approximately 54% lower than its 52-week high of $402.16. In other words, Goldman raising the target price to $196 sounds bullish, but this number is still a considerable distance from the previous high. The street is also not unanimous: Bernstein set it at the highest at $330; Mizuho had already cut its target from $200 to $155 back in early August, and $155 is now below the current market price. BTIG lowered its target due to weak trading volume, while Benchmark adjusted it downwards after the second-quarter report failed to meet expectations—during that quarter, total market crypto spot trading volume fell 25% quarter over quarter.

On one hand, Goldman is raising its target, and on the other hand, some are just cutting theirs. Coinbase is caught in the middle of two narratives: short-term prices have already moved, while long-term trading volumes have yet to recover.

Goldman is buying, not just spot trading volume

Yaro maintains the "Buy" rating, not just betting on Bitcoin to continue rising. Goldman’s statement is more aligned with "cautious optimism": brokerage and structured market growth are still ongoing, crypto trading has upward potential, regulations are progressing, and the company is also controlling costs.

This aligns with Coinbase's own business segments. Once spot trading cools down, the old model relying on commissions from Bitcoin trading will look bad; however, new products like derivatives, prediction markets, tokenized stocks, and perpetual contracts can still generate fees even when the spot market is quiet. Robinhood is categorized similarly, based on new business lines, especially derivatives and prediction markets, which are starting to be written into growth stories rather than merely as retail crypto trading entry points.

Andy Duenas, managing director of Cap V Financial Services, articulated this perspective more thoroughly. "The second version of the narrative surrounding crypto is to take it seriously," he said on the podcast "On The Margin." "This will be the future of finance. It will embed into large financial institutions."

When he made those comments, Goldman was simultaneously increasing its target price while building its crypto business. This adds another layer of meaning to the report: it is not an outsider watching from a distance but rather major firms simultaneously making markets and pricing for peers.

Duenas also mentioned a retail-related scenario. "We have a client that has collaborated with Coinbase to launch the first mortgages collateralized by crypto assets. Because you see more and more young people having their assets tied up in crypto. So how do they use these assets to buy their first home?"

This statement highlights the next chapter Goldman wants to convey: crypto is no longer just chips on an exchange, but will transform into assets that can be used for collateral, can be entered onto balance sheets, and can be integrated into mainstream credit. Duenas himself circled back to the core: "When it comes to money, the key is building trust. So our most important work is to make the market believe that crypto is a usable product."

The word trust is precisely at the most critical position right now. Prices have risen, target prices have surged, but the buying signals from U.S. institutions have not yet brightened.

Premium turns positive then negative, institutions have not seen this money clearly yet

Coinbase's Bitcoin premium is an old indicator used by the market to observe U.S. demand. A positive premium usually means that U.S. investors are willing to pay more than the offshore market; a negative premium is often interpreted as a lack of U.S. buying, with rebounds driven by overseas funds.

Niels, co-founder of STABL Agency, wrote on X Tuesday morning: "Coinbase's Bitcoin premium briefly turned green but couldn't hold, and has returned to negative, indicating that U.S. institutional buying remains weak. Bitcoin is moving, but the big money doesn't seem fully convinced yet." At that time, Bitcoin had just touched $80,698.

Six hours later, the same indicator was interpreted differently. Trader Crypto Jargon posted: "Coinbase's Bitcoin premium just turned positive after being negative for over three consecutive months. A premium being negative for several months indicates that U.S. demand is dead, and rebounds are driven by overseas funds; it's fragile. Once it turns positive, that’s when real buying will return."

On the same day, the same indicator had two interpretations coexisting. This itself illustrates that institutional money's attitude is still wavering, and has not formed a one-sided "U.S. buying is back."

On-chain data also did not back Coinbase. CryptoQuant contributor CW wrote on August 20: "Coinbase indicates a net sell of Bitcoin. But Binance and OKX remain net buyers." Translated into trading desk language, it means: offshore exchanges are still accumulating, while the largest compliant exchange in the U.S. is mainly offloading.

Meanwhile, Coinbase's role in the Bitcoin spot ETF funding pipeline has come under scrutiny again. Many processes for ETF creation, redemption, custody, and settlement must go through a few compliant entry points. Prices may go up first, but the concentration risk of the pipeline won't disappear because of that.

Michael Tanguma, co-founder and CEO of Bitcoin custody company Onramp, put it bluntly: "Why trust one custodian instead of three? It’s straightforward. We are still too early, so no one does it this way. Whether it's Coinbase or yourself, there is a single point of failure."

Goldman Sachs can write Coinbase as "the entry point for future finance," while the market can also depict the same company as "a single point in the ETF pipeline." Both statements hold true at this moment.

Debate at the end of a bear market: are newcomers surrendering or are weak hands selling the bottom?

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju described the current position as quite cold: "Newcomers surrendering is the last step of every bear market."

He also observed a contradictory set of data: Coinbase's market share is rising, yet the premium has long been negative. "The ETFs and weak hands in institutions sold the bottom." This means that it's not that there are no trades in the U.S. channels, but rather the entities that should be holding the line couldn’t hold on, and those that should be buying are still waiting on the sidelines.

This aligns with what was observed in the second quarter. Total crypto spot trading volume fell 25% quarter over quarter, and Coinbase’s results fell short of expectations; Benchmark immediately lowered its target price. BTIG's reason for cutting the target price was even more direct: trading volume is poor. When Mizuho lowered its target to $155, the market was still seeking a bottom; now the stock price has returned above that number, but the slump in trading hasn't been automatically fixed by this round of rebound.

External research provided more specific context to the same Goldman logic: crypto trading volume dropped 30% in July and another 21% in August, contracting for ten consecutive months, longer than the median duration of the previous five cycles; trading volume is approximately 75% lower than the peak in this cycle. Meanwhile, the total crypto market capitalization rebounded about 21% over the past week. Goldman’s bet, in fact, is that prices and market cap must stabilize first before a trading volume turning point might appear; before that, they are relying on brokerage, prediction markets, cost reduction, and regulatory advancements to support valuations.

This also explains why Goldman is willing to raise Coinbase's target price even while trading volumes remain bleak. It is not looking at "tomorrow’s spot commission exploding," but rather, "the company is no longer solely dependent on spot commissions for survival." Prediction markets, derivatives, and tokenized products are seen as revenues that can exist independently from Bitcoin sentiment.

However, traders still tend to watch two things: whether Bitcoin can stabilize near $80,000, and whether Coinbase's premium can truly turn positive and remain stable. Neither of those have provided a clean answer yet.

$196 does not solve the underlying problem

When the numbers are laid out, the divergence is quite clear.

• Goldman Sachs: $196, Buy.
• Bernstein: $330, highest target.
• Mizuho: $155, now below market price.
• BTIG, Benchmark: revised down due to volume and performance.
• The market itself: Coinbase is still about 54% lower than the yearly high of $402.16.

Thus, $196 does not seem like an endpoint but rather a midpoint pushed along by market conditions. The stock has risen 28% in five days, and the research report adds a target price of $23, which appears to resonate but can also easily be read as a lagging confirmation. The reason Dangeti's criticism is striking is that it hits at the most common inertia of sell-side research: prices move first, target prices adjust second; after the adjustments, they are then used to prove “Wall Street is optimistic.”

What remains unproven is whether big money from the U.S. has returned. The premium turning green then red, net selling on Coinbase, net buying on offshore exchanges, and weak hands in the ETF pipeline being indicated to have sold at the bottom—these signals stacked together indicate that this round of rebound is still fragile. Bitcoin may temporarily reach $80,000, Coinbase might first break above $180, and Goldman can write $196 first. But if institutional buying from the U.S. doesn’t materialize, these numbers are merely prices on a wall.

Duenas articulated the long-term direction: crypto will enter large institutions and become collateralizable, trustworthy assets, with trust being key. Tanguma described the current structure rigidly: it's still early and too concentrated; relying on one custodian creates a single point of failure. Ki Young Ju depicted the cyclical position coldly: newcomers surrendering is usually the last scene of a bear market.

These three statements do not cancel each other out. They merely illustrate that Goldman’s $196 is more of a statement regarding "crypto equity can still be seriously priced" rather than a confirmation that "institutions have re-entered the market." Traders need to be cautious about this matter: target prices can be adjusted in a day, but buying power will not come quickly.