In the past two days, the performance of small cryptocurrencies has been quite remarkable, especially the Ethereum and SOL links. Both sides' depth of decline is not too deep, and there is even a sense of stability with explosive potential; these two cryptocurrencies undoubtedly benefit from the current stablecoin dividends. Almost all stablecoin releases are linked to these two chains, and the growth mentality is naturally evident. As the market rises, most friends wonder whether it is worth investing at this stage. The more it grows, Lao Cui feels it is actually less wise to purchase; everyone needs to clarify the difference between bottom fishing and increasing positions with floating profits. There are significant uncontrollable factors at the mid-term level, and intervention at this stage can only be viewed as chasing the rise. Today, let's talk about Lao Cui's operational methods, which differ from others perhaps only in the judgment of the timing for intervention. Users who have followed Lao Cui for over a year basically understand him; during the first wave of Bitcoin's listing, Lao Cui also reminded everyone to chase the rise, and the future is limitless.

However, this time, Lao Cui has consistently emphasized not to chase the rise, as the core issue is that there are too many competing products. This year, those who invested in the cryptocurrency market are certainly at a loss, while those who invested in technology, gold, or old US bonds have seen considerable returns. Under the influence of this macro environment, the financial instinct is often sharper than that of ordinary investors like us, so everyone can consider how much capital is currently pouring into the cryptocurrency market? If there is not enough funding support, how long can the market remain stable? The capital in the cryptocurrency circle is largely speculative, with most related to tech stocks; previous META, today's BlackRock, and even high-overlapping capitals like Musk will not pay for cryptocurrencies. Once faced with a choice between technology and cryptocurrencies, they will not hesitate; the market for cryptocurrencies will definitely be the first to be sacrificed. If there really is an interest rate hike in the future, their selling speed could exceed everyone's imagination.

If you want to chase the rise at this stage, you must be prepared for an interest rate hike, unless you share Lao Cui's belief, that there is always sufficient faith in the cryptocurrency circle; it is also rumored in the market that the US is considering printing money, and many friends tell Lao Cui that it is still a monetary easing strategy, the US may soon start QE. This data can be easily checked; the actual paper money printing (approximately 3.8–5.1 billion pieces in 2026, valued at roughly 109 to 140 billion dollars) is to meet circulation demand (to replace damaged notes, etc.), and is not the same as the monetary policy 'printing money.' The actual data you can see shows that compared to the money supply: M2 is approximately 23.2 trillion dollars (July 2026), a year-on-year growth of about 5.4%, which is at a historically high level but with moderate growth. Slight increases are harmless; they do not impact the financial sector at all. To initiate a new round of QE, inflation must be controlled well; currently, inflation remains at 3.5%, and this data is not optimistic. Looking only at inflation data, theoretically speaking, the US should have started the new round of interest rate hikes long ago, rather than cutting rates.

The reason for not choosing to raise interest rates has been discussed too many times before; at critical moments of competition, it is hard to make a decision. Speaking solely about its impact on the cryptocurrency market can be laid out clearly: the cryptocurrency market is a choice with future attributes, which can be temporarily set aside at this stage. It can also be said that it is merely a future layout; even if it fails for them, there is no financial loss, as it does not incur any expenses. Relying on oneself to survive is naturally the best choice. Trump's thinking is undoubtedly different; the family wealth is more inclined toward the cryptocurrency market, and during his term, he will promote it vigorously. This is Lao Cui's earlier conclusion; during Trump's term, everyone can invest. Once faced with unemployment, everyone needs to stay void of positions. Even if Bitcoin now falls below 50,000, there is still an opportunity to return to its peak; the biggest positive news is that a clear bill is on the way, and as long as you don't sell, you can benefit. In terms of the long-term, it can be bought at any time, but the mid-term has a huge risk factor, especially for contract users to chase the rise is absolutely a failed strategy.

Lao Cui summarizes: currently, Lao Cui's contract aspect has always been in a void position. As for the timing of additional purchases in the spot market, it will also have to wait until after September's Federal Reserve meeting. Only after that will the timing for entering the spot market be determined. Everyone needs to have a certain amount of patience; those with short positions needing to be released have their opportunity next week, so don’t miss it. This wave may be the final act of the bears. After the bill passes, the prices of certain cryptocurrencies will certainly exceed everyone's expectations, and this round of decline will become the last opportunity for spot users to enter. You must live within the trend, not be fixated on points. The current decline is merely the choice of retail investors; tomorrow will reveal the choice of capital.

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